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金融·商務

Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?

icon for Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?
金融·商務

Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?

$93,918 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$93,918 交易量

Polymarket

JetBlue

$18,336 交易量

14%

Frontier Airlines

$30,903 交易量

22%

Allegiant

$20,313 交易量

3%

American Airlines

$7,123 交易量

8%

Alaska Airlines

$17,244 交易量

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated jet fuel prices stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict represent the dominant driver behind current trader sentiment on airline bankruptcy timelines through year-end, with low-cost carriers most exposed due to thin margins and heavy debt loads. Spirit Airlines, already in its second Chapter 11 filing since 2024, ceased operations in early May after creditors withdrew support for a planned summer restructuring amid a $4 billion industry-wide fuel cost surge. Analysts now flag JetBlue with greater than 75 percent default risk by 2027 and Frontier at 45–50 percent, citing years of unprofitability, aircraft lease obligations, and absent premium revenue streams. In contrast, legacy carriers such as American maintain manageable probabilities despite $36.5 billion in total debt, supported by international diversification and recent free-cash-flow guidance. Key near-term catalysts include June earnings releases, FOMC signals on inflation, and any further escalation in Middle East energy markets that could widen spreads between carrier balance sheets.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$93,918
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 2:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated jet fuel prices stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict represent the dominant driver behind current trader sentiment on airline bankruptcy timelines through year-end, with low-cost carriers most exposed due to thin margins and heavy debt loads. Spirit Airlines, already in its second Chapter 11 filing since 2024, ceased operations in early May after creditors withdrew support for a planned summer restructuring amid a $4 billion industry-wide fuel cost surge. Analysts now flag JetBlue with greater than 75 percent default risk by 2027 and Frontier at 45–50 percent, citing years of unprofitability, aircraft lease obligations, and absent premium revenue streams. In contrast, legacy carriers such as American maintain manageable probabilities despite $36.5 billion in total debt, supported by international diversification and recent free-cash-flow guidance. Key near-term catalysts include June earnings releases, FOMC signals on inflation, and any further escalation in Middle East energy markets that could widen spreads between carrier balance sheets.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$93,918
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 2:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Frontier Airlines" at 22%, followed by "JetBlue" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?" has generated $93.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?" is "Frontier Airlines" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "JetBlue" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.