**Incumbent Republican David Valadao faces Democratic challenger Randy Villegas in California’s 22nd Congressional District on November 3, 2026, following a June 2 top-two primary in which Valadao received 40.7% and Villegas advanced with 32.4%.** Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the Central Valley seat into a narrow toss-up environment, with the new lines estimated to have favored Trump by just two points in 2024. Combined Democratic primary support exceeded 59%, prompting several forecasters to move the race toward a slight Democratic edge. A late-June poll showed Villegas ahead by four points, aided by low Trump favorability in the district and criticism of Valadao’s support for legislation affecting Medicaid in a heavily dependent area. Trader consensus at 86% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural and polling signals, while the Republican incumbent retains a path through turnout advantages and historical overperformance in the region. The general election remains months away, with outcomes sensitive to national conditions and late-cycle developments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$12,192 交易量
$12,192 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
86%
共和黨
15%
$12,192 交易量
$12,192 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
$6,239 交易量
86%
共和黨
$5,954 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican David Valadao faces Democratic challenger Randy Villegas in California’s 22nd Congressional District on November 3, 2026, following a June 2 top-two primary in which Valadao received 40.7% and Villegas advanced with 32.4%.**
Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the Central Valley seat into a narrow toss-up environment, with the new lines estimated to have favored Trump by just two points in 2024. Combined Democratic primary support exceeded 59%, prompting several forecasters to move the race toward a slight Democratic edge. A late-June poll showed Villegas ahead by four points, aided by low Trump favorability in the district and criticism of Valadao’s support for legislation affecting Medicaid in a heavily dependent area. Trader consensus at 86% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural and polling signals, while the Republican incumbent retains a path through turnout advantages and historical overperformance in the region. The general election remains months away, with outcomes sensitive to national conditions and late-cycle developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ET
交易量
$12,192結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican David Valadao faces Democratic challenger Randy Villegas in California’s 22nd Congressional District on November 3, 2026, following a June 2 top-two primary in which Valadao received 40.7% and Villegas advanced with 32.4%.**
Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the Central Valley seat into a narrow toss-up environment, with the new lines estimated to have favored Trump by just two points in 2024. Combined Democratic primary support exceeded 59%, prompting several forecasters to move the race toward a slight Democratic edge. A late-June poll showed Villegas ahead by four points, aided by low Trump favorability in the district and criticism of Valadao’s support for legislation affecting Medicaid in a heavily dependent area. Trader consensus at 86% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural and polling signals, while the Republican incumbent retains a path through turnout advantages and historical overperformance in the region. The general election remains months away, with outcomes sensitive to national conditions and late-cycle developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,192結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ET**Incumbent Republican David Valadao faces Democratic challenger Randy Villegas in California’s 22nd Congressional District on November 3, 2026, following a June 2 top-two primary in which Valadao received 40.7% and Villegas advanced with 32.4%.** Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the Central Valley seat into a narrow toss-up environment, with the new lines estimated to have favored Trump by just two points in 2024. Combined Democratic primary support exceeded 59%, prompting several forecasters to move the race toward a slight Democratic edge. A late-June poll showed Villegas ahead by four points, aided by low Trump favorability in the district and criticism of Valadao’s support for legislation affecting Medicaid in a heavily dependent area. Trader consensus at 86% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural and polling signals, while the Republican incumbent retains a path through turnout advantages and historical overperformance in the region. The general election remains months away, with outcomes sensitive to national conditions and late-cycle developments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions