No team has ever reached three or more penalty shootouts in a single World Cup knockout phase, a pattern that underpins the 81.5% implied probability traders assign to this outcome not occurring in 2026. Knockout matches reach penalties only after 120 minutes remain level, and historical data show roughly one-quarter of such contests extend that far. With the expanded 48-team format adding a round of 32, deeper runs still require a side to advance through multiple tightly contested ties against varied opponents, a sequence that has topped out at two shootouts for teams like Argentina and Croatia in 2022. Roster depth, fatigue management, and stylistic matchups that produce decisive results in regulation or extra time further reduce the chance of repeated spot-kick deciders for any one participant.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-07-20
最新
最新
2026-07-20
This market will resolve “Yes” if any single team participates in three or more penalty shootouts across the knockout phase of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purpose of this market, the knockout phase consists of any game played after the group stage (Round of 32 onward, inclusive of the 3rd-place game). A penalty shootout is counted for both teams that participate in it. The three shootouts must be reached by the same team.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any team participated in three or more shootouts within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No team has ever reached three or more penalty shootouts in a single World Cup knockout phase, a pattern that underpins the 81.5% implied probability traders assign to this outcome not occurring in 2026. Knockout matches reach penalties only after 120 minutes remain level, and historical data show roughly one-quarter of such contests extend that far. With the expanded 48-team format adding a round of 32, deeper runs still require a side to advance through multiple tightly contested ties against varied opponents, a sequence that has topped out at two shootouts for teams like Argentina and Croatia in 2022. Roster depth, fatigue management, and stylistic matchups that produce decisive results in regulation or extra time further reduce the chance of repeated spot-kick deciders for any one participant.
This market will resolve “Yes” if any single team participates in three or more penalty shootouts across the knockout phase of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purpose of this market, the knockout phase consists of any game played after the group stage (Round of 32 onward, inclusive of the 3rd-place game). A penalty shootout is counted for both teams that participate in it. The three shootouts must be reached by the same team.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any team participated in three or more shootouts within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purpose of this market, the knockout phase consists of any game played after the group stage (Round of 32 onward, inclusive of the 3rd-place game). A penalty shootout is counted for both teams that participate in it. The three shootouts must be reached by the same team.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any team participated in three or more shootouts within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jun 9, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
交易量
$2,409結束日期
2026-07-20市場開放時間
Jun 9, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve “Yes” if any single team participates in three or more penalty shootouts across the knockout phase of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purpose of this market, the knockout phase consists of any game played after the group stage (Round of 32 onward, inclusive of the 3rd-place game). A penalty shootout is counted for both teams that participate in it. The three shootouts must be reached by the same team.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any team participated in three or more shootouts within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No team has ever reached three or more penalty shootouts in a single World Cup knockout phase, a pattern that underpins the 81.5% implied probability traders assign to this outcome not occurring in 2026. Knockout matches reach penalties only after 120 minutes remain level, and historical data show roughly one-quarter of such contests extend that far. With the expanded 48-team format adding a round of 32, deeper runs still require a side to advance through multiple tightly contested ties against varied opponents, a sequence that has topped out at two shootouts for teams like Argentina and Croatia in 2022. Roster depth, fatigue management, and stylistic matchups that produce decisive results in regulation or extra time further reduce the chance of repeated spot-kick deciders for any one participant.
This market will resolve “Yes” if any single team participates in three or more penalty shootouts across the knockout phase of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purpose of this market, the knockout phase consists of any game played after the group stage (Round of 32 onward, inclusive of the 3rd-place game). A penalty shootout is counted for both teams that participate in it. The three shootouts must be reached by the same team.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any team participated in three or more shootouts within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purpose of this market, the knockout phase consists of any game played after the group stage (Round of 32 onward, inclusive of the 3rd-place game). A penalty shootout is counted for both teams that participate in it. The three shootouts must be reached by the same team.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any team participated in three or more shootouts within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,409結束日期
2026-07-20市場開放時間
Jun 9, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No team has ever reached three or more penalty shootouts in a single World Cup knockout phase, a pattern that underpins the 81.5% implied probability traders assign to this outcome not occurring in 2026. Knockout matches reach penalties only after 120 minutes remain level, and historical data show roughly one-quarter of such contests extend that far. With the expanded 48-team format adding a round of 32, deeper runs still require a side to advance through multiple tightly contested ties against varied opponents, a sequence that has topped out at two shootouts for teams like Argentina and Croatia in 2022. Roster depth, fatigue management, and stylistic matchups that produce decisive results in regulation or extra time further reduce the chance of repeated spot-kick deciders for any one participant.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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