Spain leads the 2026 World Cup winner market at 17% implied probability, narrowly ahead of France at 16.1%, as both enter as the standout European sides following strong qualification campaigns and Spain's Euro 2024 title. England and Portugal sit level at 10.8% while Argentina and Brazil trail slightly, reflecting the depth across the top six contenders. Recent international form, squad talent including emerging stars, and coaching stability underpin the tight clustering, with no single team separating decisively ahead of the June 11 kickoff. The expanded 48-team format and potential for upsets in a longer knockout path keep probabilities bunched, as traders weigh historical patterns against current roster health and group-stage matchups.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於西班牙 17.0%
法國 16.1%
英格蘭 10.8%
葡萄牙 10.8%
$1,958,022,100 交易量
$1,958,022,100 交易量

西班牙
17%

法國
16%

英格蘭
11%

葡萄牙
11%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
8%

德國
5%

荷蘭
4%

挪威
2%

比利時
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

日本
2%

摩洛哥
2%

墨西哥
1%

瑞士
1%

土耳其
1%

美國
1%

烏拉圭
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

厄瓜多
1%

塞內加爾
1%

象牙海岸
<1%

奧地利
<1%

加拿大
<1%

瑞典
<1%

南韓
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

埃及
<1%

伊朗
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

捷克
<1%

澳洲
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

南非
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
西班牙 17.0%
法國 16.1%
英格蘭 10.8%
葡萄牙 10.8%
$1,958,022,100 交易量
$1,958,022,100 交易量

西班牙
17%

法國
16%

英格蘭
11%

葡萄牙
11%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
8%

德國
5%

荷蘭
4%

挪威
2%

比利時
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

日本
2%

摩洛哥
2%

墨西哥
1%

瑞士
1%

土耳其
1%

美國
1%

烏拉圭
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

厄瓜多
1%

塞內加爾
1%

象牙海岸
<1%

奧地利
<1%

加拿大
<1%

瑞典
<1%

南韓
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

埃及
<1%

伊朗
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

捷克
<1%

澳洲
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

南非
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads the 2026 World Cup winner market at 17% implied probability, narrowly ahead of France at 16.1%, as both enter as the standout European sides following strong qualification campaigns and Spain's Euro 2024 title. England and Portugal sit level at 10.8% while Argentina and Brazil trail slightly, reflecting the depth across the top six contenders. Recent international form, squad talent including emerging stars, and coaching stability underpin the tight clustering, with no single team separating decisively ahead of the June 11 kickoff. The expanded 48-team format and potential for upsets in a longer knockout path keep probabilities bunched, as traders weigh historical patterns against current roster health and group-stage matchups.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions