A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
Farage's rivals publicly criticize by-election as a political stunt amid financial scrutiny
Nigel Farage drops to 90%5%
Opposition parties and figures criticized Farage's by-election as a distraction from financial investigations, reinforcing their decision not to contest and solidifying Farage's dominant position in the race.
Jul 8 2026
Reform UK requests Clacton by-election date of August 6
Following Farage's resignation, Reform UK formally requested the by-election be held on August 6, setting the expected timeline for the contest and confirming Farage's intention to stand again.
Jul 8 2026
Chancellor Rachel Reeves approves Farage's resignation and by-election
Rachel Reeves formally accepted Farage's resignation, allowing the by-election to proceed despite calls to block it until investigations conclude. This confirmed the by-election's legitimacy and timing.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties rule out contesting Clacton by-election triggered by Farage's resignation
Nigel Farage jumps to 95%8%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Green Party, and Restore Britain all announced they would not stand candidates against Farage, effectively boycotting the by-election. This reduced competition and increased Farage's chances of winning significantly.
Jul 7 2026
Comedian Count Binface confirms candidacy in Clacton by-election against Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Count Binface, a satirical candidate, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming Farage's only significant challenger after major parties boycotted. This introduced a novelty element to the race but did not seriously threaten Farage's lead.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 8%4%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only significant opponent to Farage. This led to a modest increase in Binface's market probability from 4% to 8%.
Jul 7 2026
Tony Mack declines to run in Clacton by-election, calls Farage's move cynical
Tony Mack plunges to 0%37%
Tony Mack, former Reform candidate displaced by Farage in 2024, announced he would not stand in the by-election, criticizing Farage's resignation as a cynical ploy. This removed a potential challenger, reinforcing Farage's dominance.
Jul 7 2026
Labour candidate Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and others ruled out by party for by-election
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul plunges to 0%44%
Labour decided not to contest the by-election, withdrawing support for Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and other candidates, citing Farage's financial scandal and strategic focus elsewhere. This led to a collapse in their market probabilities to near zero.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties announce boycott of Clacton by-election triggered by Farage
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all ruled out contesting the by-election, effectively leaving Farage without major party opposition. This reduced competition increased Farage's chances and market price.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy for Clacton by-election as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only notable challenger to Farage. This led to a rise in Binface's market price from 4% to around 7-8%.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface gains media attention as main opposition in Clacton by-election
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Media coverage highlighted Count Binface as the main challenger to Farage, increasing public awareness and market interest, which contributed to his price rise in the prediction market.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage frames by-election as 'people versus the establishment' contest
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Farage positioned the by-election as a referendum on his political standing amid allegations, appealing to his base and reinforcing his market odds as the favorite to win.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage resigns as MP for Clacton, triggering by-election which he will contest
Nigel Farage jumps to 95%8%
Farage announced his resignation to force a by-election and stand again, aiming to let the people of Clacton judge him amid allegations of undeclared gifts and financial scrutiny. This announcement caused Farage's market probability to rise sharply to around 87-95%.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties boycott Clacton by-election amid Farage's financial scandal
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all ruled out contesting the by-election, citing Farage's ongoing parliamentary standards investigation and calling the by-election a political stunt. This reduced the chances of other candidates and consolidated Farage's position as the favorite.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
Farage's rivals publicly criticize by-election as a political stunt amid financial scrutiny
Nigel Farage drops to 90%5%
Opposition parties and figures criticized Farage's by-election as a distraction from financial investigations, reinforcing their decision not to contest and solidifying Farage's dominant position in the race.
Jul 8 2026
Reform UK requests Clacton by-election date of August 6
Following Farage's resignation, Reform UK formally requested the by-election be held on August 6, setting the expected timeline for the contest and confirming Farage's intention to stand again.
Jul 8 2026
Chancellor Rachel Reeves approves Farage's resignation and by-election
Rachel Reeves formally accepted Farage's resignation, allowing the by-election to proceed despite calls to block it until investigations conclude. This confirmed the by-election's legitimacy and timing.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties rule out contesting Clacton by-election triggered by Farage's resignation
Nigel Farage jumps to 95%8%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Green Party, and Restore Britain all announced they would not stand candidates against Farage, effectively boycotting the by-election. This reduced competition and increased Farage's chances of winning significantly.
Jul 7 2026
Comedian Count Binface confirms candidacy in Clacton by-election against Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Count Binface, a satirical candidate, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming Farage's only significant challenger after major parties boycotted. This introduced a novelty element to the race but did not seriously threaten Farage's lead.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 8%4%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only significant opponent to Farage. This led to a modest increase in Binface's market probability from 4% to 8%.
Jul 7 2026
Tony Mack declines to run in Clacton by-election, calls Farage's move cynical
Tony Mack plunges to 0%37%
Tony Mack, former Reform candidate displaced by Farage in 2024, announced he would not stand in the by-election, criticizing Farage's resignation as a cynical ploy. This removed a potential challenger, reinforcing Farage's dominance.
Jul 7 2026
Labour candidate Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and others ruled out by party for by-election
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul plunges to 0%44%
Labour decided not to contest the by-election, withdrawing support for Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and other candidates, citing Farage's financial scandal and strategic focus elsewhere. This led to a collapse in their market probabilities to near zero.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties announce boycott of Clacton by-election triggered by Farage
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all ruled out contesting the by-election, effectively leaving Farage without major party opposition. This reduced competition increased Farage's chances and market price.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy for Clacton by-election as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only notable challenger to Farage. This led to a rise in Binface's market price from 4% to around 7-8%.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface gains media attention as main opposition in Clacton by-election
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Media coverage highlighted Count Binface as the main challenger to Farage, increasing public awareness and market interest, which contributed to his price rise in the prediction market.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage frames by-election as 'people versus the establishment' contest
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Farage positioned the by-election as a referendum on his political standing amid allegations, appealing to his base and reinforcing his market odds as the favorite to win.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage resigns as MP for Clacton, triggering by-election which he will contest
Nigel Farage jumps to 95%8%
Farage announced his resignation to force a by-election and stand again, aiming to let the people of Clacton judge him amid allegations of undeclared gifts and financial scrutiny. This announcement caused Farage's market probability to rise sharply to around 87-95%.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties boycott Clacton by-election amid Farage's financial scandal
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all ruled out contesting the by-election, citing Farage's ongoing parliamentary standards investigation and calling the by-election a political stunt. This reduced the chances of other candidates and consolidated Farage's position as the favorite.
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