**Kimi Antonelli's commanding FP2 performance on the demanding new Madring circuit underpins the market's overwhelming consensus.** The Mercedes driver, leading the championship after his Monza victory, posted the session's quickest lap of 1:33.662, edging Ferrari's Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton by over a tenth while the field adapted to the hybrid street-style layout's high-speed corners, heavy braking zones, and technical demands. A red-flag interruption from Arvid Lindblad's crash limited late improvements, and Antonelli's pace on soft tires after George Russell topped FP1 reinforced Mercedes' edge in the session. With probabilities reflecting this outcome, the implied probability favors the Italian driver heavily, though variables such as an unrecorded late flyer, track evolution, or mechanical setbacks in the final minutes could still shift the result before the session fully concludes.