Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25%, combined with core inflation near or above target and fiscal expansion risks from consumption tax cuts, has lifted the 10-year JGB yield to approximately 2.99% as of September 18. These developments anchor trader sentiment toward the 3.0%+ bracket at 67.3% implied probability, reflecting expectations of further gradual tightening and sustained upward pressure on long-term rates through year-end. Market pricing aligns with analyst forecasts around 3% by December 2026, though incoming CPI prints and any BoJ communications on terminal rates could still influence the final level amid global yield volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3.0%+ 67.3%
2.8-3.0% 18.9%
2.4-2.6% 6.8%
2.6-2.8% 3.1%
$29,873 交易量
$29,873 交易量
2026-12-30
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
19%
3.0%+
67%
3.0%+ 67.3%
2.8-3.0% 18.9%
2.4-2.6% 6.8%
2.6-2.8% 3.1%
$29,873 交易量
$29,873 交易量
2026-12-30
<2.0%
$1,370 交易量
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,701 交易量
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,263 交易量
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,562 交易量
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,556 交易量
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,716 交易量
19%
3.0%+
$11,705 交易量
67%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25%, combined with core inflation near or above target and fiscal expansion risks from consumption tax cuts, has lifted the 10-year JGB yield to approximately 2.99% as of September 18. These developments anchor trader sentiment toward the 3.0%+ bracket at 67.3% implied probability, reflecting expectations of further gradual tightening and sustained upward pressure on long-term rates through year-end. Market pricing aligns with analyst forecasts around 3% by December 2026, though incoming CPI prints and any BoJ communications on terminal rates could still influence the final level amid global yield volatility.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
市场开放时间： Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
交易量
$29,873结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25%, combined with core inflation near or above target and fiscal expansion risks from consumption tax cuts, has lifted the 10-year JGB yield to approximately 2.99% as of September 18. These developments anchor trader sentiment toward the 3.0%+ bracket at 67.3% implied probability, reflecting expectations of further gradual tightening and sustained upward pressure on long-term rates through year-end. Market pricing aligns with analyst forecasts around 3% by December 2026, though incoming CPI prints and any BoJ communications on terminal rates could still influence the final level amid global yield volatility.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
交易量
$29,873结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETRecent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25%, combined with core inflation near or above target and fiscal expansion risks from consumption tax cuts, has lifted the 10-year JGB yield to approximately 2.99% as of September 18. These developments anchor trader sentiment toward the 3.0%+ bracket at 67.3% implied probability, reflecting expectations of further gradual tightening and sustained upward pressure on long-term rates through year-end. Market pricing aligns with analyst forecasts around 3% by December 2026, though incoming CPI prints and any BoJ communications on terminal rates could still influence the final level amid global yield volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题