Japan’s government has signaled a measured approach to any potential release of its own UAP-related records in 2026. Following the Pentagon’s initial declassification tranche on May 8, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated on May 11 that Tokyo is reviewing U.S. files—including sightings near Japan—while coordinating with allies, yet any Japanese disclosures would occur only on a case-by-case basis after weighing risks to intelligence sources and methods. Lawmakers proposed a specialized UAP office in March, but no legislative mandate or timeline for broad declassification has emerged. Traders therefore assign a 70% probability against new Japanese files appearing this year, viewing security priorities and the absence of an official commitment as the dominant constraints on movement.