Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Madrid on June 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 26?
33°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$94,140 交易量
$94,140 交易量
2026-06-26
29°C or below
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$94,140 交易量
$94,140 交易量
2026-06-26
29°C or below
$1,739 交易量
No
30°C
$4,362 交易量
No
31°C
$7,130 交易量
No
32°C
$13,301 交易量
No
33°C
$31,726 交易量
Yes
34°C
$13,466 交易量
No
35°C
$7,574 交易量
No
36°C
$5,466 交易量
No
37°C
$2,922 交易量
No
38°C
$2,661 交易量
No
39°C or higher
$3,795 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$94,140结束日期
2026-06-26市场开放时间
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$94,140结束日期
2026-06-26市场开放时间
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题