Recent European model runs, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over central Europe supporting daytime maxima near 34–35 °C in Munich on 26 June, consistent with the market’s heaviest trading around those bins. Surface observations from the past 48 hours show temperatures already reaching 32–33 °C under mostly clear skies and light easterly flow, while 850 hPa temperature anomalies remain 4–6 °C above the June climatological mean. Key uncertainties stem from the precise timing of any weak trough passage that could enhance cloud cover or trigger isolated convection, potentially trimming peak readings by 1–2 °C, versus stronger subsidence that would favor the upper tail near 36 °C. Resolution hinges on the official DWD station reading at Munich, with ensemble spread still allowing modest probability mass across the 33–36 °C range two days before the event.