Recent USGS data show a 7.4 magnitude event in Colombia on August 10 and several M5.5–6.3 quakes in the Pacific and Alaska through August 12, contributing to the early tally in the August 10–16 window. Trader sentiment favoring ≤6 events at 31% implied probability reflects expectations of typical background seismicity outside major aftershock sequences or clustered subduction-zone activity. Key variables include ongoing aftershocks from the Colombian quake, potential for additional M5.5+ events along the Ring of Fire, and normal global rates of roughly 1–2 such quakes per day on average. Model consensus from USGS monitoring and historical weekly counts near 8–12 events support the broad distribution, with new catalog updates expected daily through the period.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月10日至8月16日发生了多少次5.5级或以上的地震？
8月10日至8月16日发生了多少次5.5级或以上的地震？
≤6 31.1%
7 14.1%
8 13%
9 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
≤6
31%
7
14%
8
13%
9
12%
10
10%
11
7%
12
6%
13
4%
>13
6%
≤6 31.1%
7 14.1%
8 13%
9 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
≤6
$4,292 交易量
31%
7
$345 交易量
14%
8
$142 交易量
13%
9
$135 交易量
12%
10
$169 交易量
10%
11
$98 交易量
7%
12
$113 交易量
6%
13
$69 交易量
4%
>13
$3,839 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent USGS data show a 7.4 magnitude event in Colombia on August 10 and several M5.5–6.3 quakes in the Pacific and Alaska through August 12, contributing to the early tally in the August 10–16 window. Trader sentiment favoring ≤6 events at 31% implied probability reflects expectations of typical background seismicity outside major aftershock sequences or clustered subduction-zone activity. Key variables include ongoing aftershocks from the Colombian quake, potential for additional M5.5+ events along the Ring of Fire, and normal global rates of roughly 1–2 such quakes per day on average. Model consensus from USGS monitoring and historical weekly counts near 8–12 events support the broad distribution, with new catalog updates expected daily through the period.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
交易量
$9,203结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent USGS data show a 7.4 magnitude event in Colombia on August 10 and several M5.5–6.3 quakes in the Pacific and Alaska through August 12, contributing to the early tally in the August 10–16 window. Trader sentiment favoring ≤6 events at 31% implied probability reflects expectations of typical background seismicity outside major aftershock sequences or clustered subduction-zone activity. Key variables include ongoing aftershocks from the Colombian quake, potential for additional M5.5+ events along the Ring of Fire, and normal global rates of roughly 1–2 such quakes per day on average. Model consensus from USGS monitoring and historical weekly counts near 8–12 events support the broad distribution, with new catalog updates expected daily through the period.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$9,203结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETRecent USGS data show a 7.4 magnitude event in Colombia on August 10 and several M5.5–6.3 quakes in the Pacific and Alaska through August 12, contributing to the early tally in the August 10–16 window. Trader sentiment favoring ≤6 events at 31% implied probability reflects expectations of typical background seismicity outside major aftershock sequences or clustered subduction-zone activity. Key variables include ongoing aftershocks from the Colombian quake, potential for additional M5.5+ events along the Ring of Fire, and normal global rates of roughly 1–2 such quakes per day on average. Model consensus from USGS monitoring and historical weekly counts near 8–12 events support the broad distribution, with new catalog updates expected daily through the period.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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