Recent weakness in the July 2026 employment report, showing a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline against 80,000 expectations and downward revisions to prior months, has shifted trader focus toward subdued August hiring. ADP private payrolls rose just 44,000 in July, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent amid softer retail, leisure, and government job trends. This data has tempered rate-hike odds for the September FOMC meeting and reinforced views of a cooling labor market entering the second half of the year. With the August nonfarm payrolls release scheduled for September 4, closely matched probabilities across low-addition brackets reflect uncertainty over whether July marked a trend or outlier, alongside upcoming CPI prints and benchmark revisions on August 28 that could further shape consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5万 – 10万 31%
0 – 5万 28%
-50k – 0 13%
150k+ 13%
$13,897 交易量
$13,897 交易量
<-50k
8%
-50k – 0
13%
0 – 5万
28%
5万 – 10万
31%
100k – 150k
10%
150k+
15%
5万 – 10万 31%
0 – 5万 28%
-50k – 0 13%
150k+ 13%
$13,897 交易量
$13,897 交易量
<-50k
8%
-50k – 0
13%
0 – 5万
28%
5万 – 10万
31%
100k – 150k
10%
150k+
15%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Recent weakness in the July 2026 employment report, showing a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline against 80,000 expectations and downward revisions to prior months, has shifted trader focus toward subdued August hiring. ADP private payrolls rose just 44,000 in July, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent amid softer retail, leisure, and government job trends. This data has tempered rate-hike odds for the September FOMC meeting and reinforced views of a cooling labor market entering the second half of the year. With the August nonfarm payrolls release scheduled for September 4, closely matched probabilities across low-addition brackets reflect uncertainty over whether July marked a trend or outlier, alongside upcoming CPI prints and benchmark revisions on August 28 that could further shape consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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