Despite escalating rhetorical exchanges and strategic rivalry between Israel and Turkey, particularly over Syria policy and Gaza-related issues, both governments have prioritized de-escalation measures that reduce the near-term risk of direct military confrontation. Turkish officials have issued warnings referencing past interventions in Libya and Karabakh while advancing military modernization, yet Ankara has simultaneously supported mediation efforts and maintained indirect channels amid severed formal ties. Israeli assessments frame Turkey as an emerging regional concern rather than an immediate adversary, with focus remaining on other fronts. This pattern of posturing without kinetic engagement aligns with trader consensus reflected in the high implied probability against a clash before the end of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$198,770 交易量
$198,770 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$198,770 交易量
$198,770 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite escalating rhetorical exchanges and strategic rivalry between Israel and Turkey, particularly over Syria policy and Gaza-related issues, both governments have prioritized de-escalation measures that reduce the near-term risk of direct military confrontation. Turkish officials have issued warnings referencing past interventions in Libya and Karabakh while advancing military modernization, yet Ankara has simultaneously supported mediation efforts and maintained indirect channels amid severed formal ties. Israeli assessments frame Turkey as an emerging regional concern rather than an immediate adversary, with focus remaining on other fronts. This pattern of posturing without kinetic engagement aligns with trader consensus reflected in the high implied probability against a clash before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$198,770结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite escalating rhetorical exchanges and strategic rivalry between Israel and Turkey, particularly over Syria policy and Gaza-related issues, both governments have prioritized de-escalation measures that reduce the near-term risk of direct military confrontation. Turkish officials have issued warnings referencing past interventions in Libya and Karabakh while advancing military modernization, yet Ankara has simultaneously supported mediation efforts and maintained indirect channels amid severed formal ties. Israeli assessments frame Turkey as an emerging regional concern rather than an immediate adversary, with focus remaining on other fronts. This pattern of posturing without kinetic engagement aligns with trader consensus reflected in the high implied probability against a clash before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$198,770结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite escalating rhetorical exchanges and strategic rivalry between Israel and Turkey, particularly over Syria policy and Gaza-related issues, both governments have prioritized de-escalation measures that reduce the near-term risk of direct military confrontation. Turkish officials have issued warnings referencing past interventions in Libya and Karabakh while advancing military modernization, yet Ankara has simultaneously supported mediation efforts and maintained indirect channels amid severed formal ties. Israeli assessments frame Turkey as an emerging regional concern rather than an immediate adversary, with focus remaining on other fronts. This pattern of posturing without kinetic engagement aligns with trader consensus reflected in the high implied probability against a clash before the end of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题