**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from Khamenei's official channels in the August 4–11 window, with 65.5% on <5 and 29.5% on 5–9.** This positioning stems from the post-February 2026 transition following Ali Khamenei's death, under which Mojtaba Khamenei has assumed the role and the Supreme Leader's Public Relations Office maintains tight control over messaging. Recent activity shows limited direct output, with the office issuing a targeted August 4 statement rejecting unauthorized reports on Mojtaba's exchanges with President Pezeshkian to curb intra-regime speculation and project unity amid ongoing U.S. tensions. Regime priorities currently center on internal consolidation, security measures, and diplomatic positioning rather than high-volume public statements, consistent with reduced public-facing engagement observed since the leadership change. Higher bins remain low-probability because scheduled events or escalations capable of prompting frequent official releases have not materialized in the resolution period.