Persistent US-Iran deadlock and Iranian restrictions via the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority continue to throttle commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining market-implied odds of 71.5% against a return to normal traffic by June 30. As of mid-May 2026, daily vessel passages remain at roughly 5% of pre-February 2026 averages—around seven to nine ships versus 125–140—while more than 1,550 vessels and 22,500 mariners stay stranded amid elevated insurance premiums and routing uncertainty. Freight rates for Gulf-bound energy cargoes have tripled, reflecting sustained supply-chain friction and volatility in global oil and LNG benchmarks. Traders price in limited near-term de-escalation, with any normalization likely requiring verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or full naval withdrawal before the end-of-June horizon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$6,482,779 交易量
$6,482,779 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$6,482,779 交易量
$6,482,779 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent US-Iran deadlock and Iranian restrictions via the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority continue to throttle commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining market-implied odds of 71.5% against a return to normal traffic by June 30. As of mid-May 2026, daily vessel passages remain at roughly 5% of pre-February 2026 averages—around seven to nine ships versus 125–140—while more than 1,550 vessels and 22,500 mariners stay stranded amid elevated insurance premiums and routing uncertainty. Freight rates for Gulf-bound energy cargoes have tripled, reflecting sustained supply-chain friction and volatility in global oil and LNG benchmarks. Traders price in limited near-term de-escalation, with any normalization likely requiring verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or full naval withdrawal before the end-of-June horizon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
交易量
$6,482,779结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent US-Iran deadlock and Iranian restrictions via the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority continue to throttle commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining market-implied odds of 71.5% against a return to normal traffic by June 30. As of mid-May 2026, daily vessel passages remain at roughly 5% of pre-February 2026 averages—around seven to nine ships versus 125–140—while more than 1,550 vessels and 22,500 mariners stay stranded amid elevated insurance premiums and routing uncertainty. Freight rates for Gulf-bound energy cargoes have tripled, reflecting sustained supply-chain friction and volatility in global oil and LNG benchmarks. Traders price in limited near-term de-escalation, with any normalization likely requiring verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or full naval withdrawal before the end-of-June horizon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$6,482,779结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent US-Iran deadlock and Iranian restrictions via the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority continue to throttle commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining market-implied odds of 71.5% against a return to normal traffic by June 30. As of mid-May 2026, daily vessel passages remain at roughly 5% of pre-February 2026 averages—around seven to nine ships versus 125–140—while more than 1,550 vessels and 22,500 mariners stay stranded amid elevated insurance premiums and routing uncertainty. Freight rates for Gulf-bound energy cargoes have tripled, reflecting sustained supply-chain friction and volatility in global oil and LNG benchmarks. Traders price in limited near-term de-escalation, with any normalization likely requiring verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or full naval withdrawal before the end-of-June horizon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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