Ongoing US sanctions and a naval blockade reinstated in July have sharply curtailed Iranian oil exports, slashing hard-currency inflows and widening the gap between official and free-market exchange rates. The rial has traded near or above 2.2 million per dollar on informal markets in recent weeks amid inflation exceeding 80 percent year-over-year and reduced access to foreign reserves. With only days remaining until end-September resolution, limited diplomatic movement or export recovery has kept pressure on the currency, aligning trader pricing with the 2.2–2.5 million band as the most probable outcome under current conditions. Central bank interventions have provided temporary support but have not reversed the broader depreciation trend driven by sanctions enforcement and trade isolation.