Current leaderboard trends show leading large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google clustered between 1500 and 1506 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, reflecting steady but incremental gains in reasoning and human preference benchmarks that have not accelerated enough to reach the 1550 threshold this year. This positions the 62% market-implied odds on "None in 2026" as a reflection of historical scaling patterns and evaluation volatility. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 33.5% through recent Claude Opus 4.7 releases that emphasize advanced capabilities and consistent top rankings. Google and OpenAI trail with lower probabilities tied to more measured update cycles. Upcoming model iterations could introduce surprises, yet realistic timelines suggest the 1550 mark remains a stretch before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年无人达到 58%
Anthropic 33%
谷歌 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 交易量
$54,452 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年无人达到
58%
Anthropic
33%
谷歌
11%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
2%
阿里巴巴
1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
2026年无人达到 58%
Anthropic 33%
谷歌 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 交易量
$54,452 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年无人达到
$10,084 交易量
58%
Anthropic
$6,982 交易量
33%
谷歌
$7,388 交易量
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 交易量
3%
xAI
$5,414 交易量
2%
阿里巴巴
$4,750 交易量
1%
Mistral
$3,688 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Current leaderboard trends show leading large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google clustered between 1500 and 1506 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, reflecting steady but incremental gains in reasoning and human preference benchmarks that have not accelerated enough to reach the 1550 threshold this year. This positions the 62% market-implied odds on "None in 2026" as a reflection of historical scaling patterns and evaluation volatility. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 33.5% through recent Claude Opus 4.7 releases that emphasize advanced capabilities and consistent top rankings. Google and OpenAI trail with lower probabilities tied to more measured update cycles. Upcoming model iterations could introduce surprises, yet realistic timelines suggest the 1550 mark remains a stretch before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
市场开放时间： Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
交易量
$54,452结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Current leaderboard trends show leading large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google clustered between 1500 and 1506 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, reflecting steady but incremental gains in reasoning and human preference benchmarks that have not accelerated enough to reach the 1550 threshold this year. This positions the 62% market-implied odds on "None in 2026" as a reflection of historical scaling patterns and evaluation volatility. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 33.5% through recent Claude Opus 4.7 releases that emphasize advanced capabilities and consistent top rankings. Google and OpenAI trail with lower probabilities tied to more measured update cycles. Upcoming model iterations could introduce surprises, yet realistic timelines suggest the 1550 mark remains a stretch before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$54,452结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current leaderboard trends show leading large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google clustered between 1500 and 1506 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, reflecting steady but incremental gains in reasoning and human preference benchmarks that have not accelerated enough to reach the 1550 threshold this year. This positions the 62% market-implied odds on "None in 2026" as a reflection of historical scaling patterns and evaluation volatility. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 33.5% through recent Claude Opus 4.7 releases that emphasize advanced capabilities and consistent top rankings. Google and OpenAI trail with lower probabilities tied to more measured update cycles. Upcoming model iterations could introduce surprises, yet realistic timelines suggest the 1550 mark remains a stretch before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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