Trader consensus on Polymarket gives an 85.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, driven by Google I/O's keynote kickoff that date, where the company historically unveils major AI model updates amid competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7. Recent catalysts include Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users around May 5, alongside Vertex AI deprecations signaling an imminent Flash general availability and LM Arena testing of refreshed models. Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong reasoning benchmarks already position Google well, but reliable tool calling in 3.2 could reset leaderboards—though typical launch slips or feature tweaks remain risks ahead of the event.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于May 19 86%
May 20 5.2%
May 18 4.3%
May 22 2.1%
$210,505 交易量
$210,505 交易量
2026-05-31
May 12
<1%
May 13
<1%
May 14
1%
May 15
<1%
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
4%
May 19
86%
May 20
5%
May 21
1%
May 22
2%
May 23
1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
1%
May 26
1%
May 27
1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
1%
May 19 86%
May 20 5.2%
May 18 4.3%
May 22 2.1%
$210,505 交易量
$210,505 交易量
2026-05-31
May 12
$7,784 交易量
<1%
May 13
$3,368 交易量
<1%
May 14
$3,770 交易量
1%
May 15
$6,886 交易量
<1%
May 16
$5,588 交易量
<1%
May 17
$6,348 交易量
<1%
May 18
$16,340 交易量
4%
May 19
$78,366 交易量
86%
May 20
$12,401 交易量
5%
May 21
$7,530 交易量
1%
May 22
$9,273 交易量
2%
May 23
$3,069 交易量
1%
May 24
$3,950 交易量
<1%
May 25
$2,132 交易量
1%
May 26
$2,792 交易量
1%
May 27
$2,335 交易量
1%
May 28
$2,006 交易量
<1%
May 29
$1,605 交易量
<1%
May 30
$3,689 交易量
<1%
May 31
$3,573 交易量
<1%
No release by May 31
$8,948 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives an 85.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, driven by Google I/O's keynote kickoff that date, where the company historically unveils major AI model updates amid competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7. Recent catalysts include Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users around May 5, alongside Vertex AI deprecations signaling an imminent Flash general availability and LM Arena testing of refreshed models. Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong reasoning benchmarks already position Google well, but reliable tool calling in 3.2 could reset leaderboards—though typical launch slips or feature tweaks remain risks ahead of the event.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
交易量
$210,505结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives an 85.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, driven by Google I/O's keynote kickoff that date, where the company historically unveils major AI model updates amid competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7. Recent catalysts include Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users around May 5, alongside Vertex AI deprecations signaling an imminent Flash general availability and LM Arena testing of refreshed models. Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong reasoning benchmarks already position Google well, but reliable tool calling in 3.2 could reset leaderboards—though typical launch slips or feature tweaks remain risks ahead of the event.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$210,505结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives an 85.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, driven by Google I/O's keynote kickoff that date, where the company historically unveils major AI model updates amid competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7. Recent catalysts include Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users around May 5, alongside Vertex AI deprecations signaling an imminent Flash general availability and LM Arena testing of refreshed models. Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong reasoning benchmarks already position Google well, but reliable tool calling in 3.2 could reset leaderboards—though typical launch slips or feature tweaks remain risks ahead of the event.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题