Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 94% probability that OpenAI will release a new frontier model—a next-generation, general-purpose flagship large language model like a GPT-5.6 successor—by September 30, 2026, driven by the company's blistering release cadence following GPT-5.5's April 23 launch, which advanced reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities to maintain leads over Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 and Google's Gemini 3.1. Recent specialized variants like GPT-5.5 Instant and cybersecurity-focused Daybreak do not qualify, heightening anticipation amid competitive pressures from xAI's impending Grok 5 and rumors of OpenAI's "Spud" model. U.S. government vetting for frontier AI safety could introduce delays, with developer conferences and enterprise rollouts as key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$10,034 交易量
2026-05-31
5月31日
24%
June 30
69%
September 30
93%
$10,034 交易量
5月31日
$2,156 交易量
24%
June 30
$2,348 交易量
69%
September 30
$5,530 交易量
93%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 94% probability that OpenAI will release a new frontier model—a next-generation, general-purpose flagship large language model like a GPT-5.6 successor—by September 30, 2026, driven by the company's blistering release cadence following GPT-5.5's April 23 launch, which advanced reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities to maintain leads over Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 and Google's Gemini 3.1. Recent specialized variants like GPT-5.5 Instant and cybersecurity-focused Daybreak do not qualify, heightening anticipation amid competitive pressures from xAI's impending Grok 5 and rumors of OpenAI's "Spud" model. U.S. government vetting for frontier AI safety could introduce delays, with developer conferences and enterprise rollouts as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 3, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
交易量
$10,034结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
May 3, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 94% probability that OpenAI will release a new frontier model—a next-generation, general-purpose flagship large language model like a GPT-5.6 successor—by September 30, 2026, driven by the company's blistering release cadence following GPT-5.5's April 23 launch, which advanced reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities to maintain leads over Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 and Google's Gemini 3.1. Recent specialized variants like GPT-5.5 Instant and cybersecurity-focused Daybreak do not qualify, heightening anticipation amid competitive pressures from xAI's impending Grok 5 and rumors of OpenAI's "Spud" model. U.S. government vetting for frontier AI safety could introduce delays, with developer conferences and enterprise rollouts as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$10,034结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
May 3, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 94% probability that OpenAI will release a new frontier model—a next-generation, general-purpose flagship large language model like a GPT-5.6 successor—by September 30, 2026, driven by the company's blistering release cadence following GPT-5.5's April 23 launch, which advanced reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities to maintain leads over Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 and Google's Gemini 3.1. Recent specialized variants like GPT-5.5 Instant and cybersecurity-focused Daybreak do not qualify, heightening anticipation amid competitive pressures from xAI's impending Grok 5 and rumors of OpenAI's "Spud" model. U.S. government vetting for frontier AI safety could introduce delays, with developer conferences and enterprise rollouts as key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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