Trader consensus on the Chatbot Arena market heavily favors "None in 2026" at 83.5% implied probability because leading models remain clustered around 1500-1511 Elo as of mid-August, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 at the frontier followed closely by OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and xAI's Grok-4.6. This positioning stems from incremental gains throughout 2026 rather than the rapid jumps needed to close the 40-point gap before year-end, amid typical development cycles and scaling constraints. Anthropic's 12% share reflects its recent model releases and consistent leaderboard dominance in reasoning and coding arenas, while lower odds for Google, OpenAI, and others capture competitive parity without a decisive edge. Upcoming developer updates or capability demonstrations could still shift sentiment if they accelerate progress beyond historical benchmarks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年无人达到 84%
Anthropic 12%
谷歌 3.7%
OpenAI 2.0%
$116,745 交易量
$116,745 交易量
2026-12-30
2026年无人达到
84%
Anthropic
12%
谷歌
4%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
2026年无人达到 84%
Anthropic 12%
谷歌 3.7%
OpenAI 2.0%
$116,745 交易量
$116,745 交易量
2026-12-30
2026年无人达到
$25,462 交易量
84%
Anthropic
$14,345 交易量
12%
谷歌
$11,182 交易量
4%
OpenAI
$13,534 交易量
2%
xAI
$9,201 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$13,036 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$10,978 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$9,474 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$9,533 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on the Chatbot Arena market heavily favors "None in 2026" at 83.5% implied probability because leading models remain clustered around 1500-1511 Elo as of mid-August, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 at the frontier followed closely by OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and xAI's Grok-4.6. This positioning stems from incremental gains throughout 2026 rather than the rapid jumps needed to close the 40-point gap before year-end, amid typical development cycles and scaling constraints. Anthropic's 12% share reflects its recent model releases and consistent leaderboard dominance in reasoning and coding arenas, while lower odds for Google, OpenAI, and others capture competitive parity without a decisive edge. Upcoming developer updates or capability demonstrations could still shift sentiment if they accelerate progress beyond historical benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
市场开放时间： Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
交易量
$116,745结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on the Chatbot Arena market heavily favors "None in 2026" at 83.5% implied probability because leading models remain clustered around 1500-1511 Elo as of mid-August, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 at the frontier followed closely by OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and xAI's Grok-4.6. This positioning stems from incremental gains throughout 2026 rather than the rapid jumps needed to close the 40-point gap before year-end, amid typical development cycles and scaling constraints. Anthropic's 12% share reflects its recent model releases and consistent leaderboard dominance in reasoning and coding arenas, while lower odds for Google, OpenAI, and others capture competitive parity without a decisive edge. Upcoming developer updates or capability demonstrations could still shift sentiment if they accelerate progress beyond historical benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$116,745结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the Chatbot Arena market heavily favors "None in 2026" at 83.5% implied probability because leading models remain clustered around 1500-1511 Elo as of mid-August, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 at the frontier followed closely by OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and xAI's Grok-4.6. This positioning stems from incremental gains throughout 2026 rather than the rapid jumps needed to close the 40-point gap before year-end, amid typical development cycles and scaling constraints. Anthropic's 12% share reflects its recent model releases and consistent leaderboard dominance in reasoning and coding arenas, while lower odds for Google, OpenAI, and others capture competitive parity without a decisive edge. Upcoming developer updates or capability demonstrations could still shift sentiment if they accelerate progress beyond historical benchmarks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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