Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism that any AI model will first reach a 1550 Elo rating on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with None implied at 57.5%, as top large language models like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking hover around 1504 Elo as of early May— a 46-point gap amid signs of scaling plateaus and data constraints. Anthropic leads alternatives at 30.5% on its sustained dominance since late February's Claude 4.6 release, which claimed #1 across Arena categories including hard prompts and coding, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (11%) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants (5.9%). Recent entrants like xAI's Grok 4.20 Beta (1491 Elo) show competitive pressure but no breakthroughs, with traders eyeing summer model drops from major labs as key catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年无人达到 56%
Anthropic 31%
谷歌 13%
OpenAI 5.5%
$51,329 交易量
$51,329 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年无人达到
56%
Anthropic
31%
谷歌
13%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
2%
阿里巴巴
1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
2026年无人达到 56%
Anthropic 31%
谷歌 13%
OpenAI 5.5%
$51,329 交易量
$51,329 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年无人达到
$9,738 交易量
56%
Anthropic
$6,397 交易量
31%
谷歌
$7,067 交易量
13%
OpenAI
$7,144 交易量
6%
xAI
$5,094 交易量
2%
阿里巴巴
$4,446 交易量
1%
Mistral
$3,371 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,490 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$3,582 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism that any AI model will first reach a 1550 Elo rating on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with None implied at 57.5%, as top large language models like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking hover around 1504 Elo as of early May— a 46-point gap amid signs of scaling plateaus and data constraints. Anthropic leads alternatives at 30.5% on its sustained dominance since late February's Claude 4.6 release, which claimed #1 across Arena categories including hard prompts and coding, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (11%) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants (5.9%). Recent entrants like xAI's Grok 4.20 Beta (1491 Elo) show competitive pressure but no breakthroughs, with traders eyeing summer model drops from major labs as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
市场开放时间： Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
交易量
$51,329结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism that any AI model will first reach a 1550 Elo rating on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with None implied at 57.5%, as top large language models like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking hover around 1504 Elo as of early May— a 46-point gap amid signs of scaling plateaus and data constraints. Anthropic leads alternatives at 30.5% on its sustained dominance since late February's Claude 4.6 release, which claimed #1 across Arena categories including hard prompts and coding, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (11%) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants (5.9%). Recent entrants like xAI's Grok 4.20 Beta (1491 Elo) show competitive pressure but no breakthroughs, with traders eyeing summer model drops from major labs as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$51,329结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism that any AI model will first reach a 1550 Elo rating on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with None implied at 57.5%, as top large language models like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking hover around 1504 Elo as of early May— a 46-point gap amid signs of scaling plateaus and data constraints. Anthropic leads alternatives at 30.5% on its sustained dominance since late February's Claude 4.6 release, which claimed #1 across Arena categories including hard prompts and coding, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (11%) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants (5.9%). Recent entrants like xAI's Grok 4.20 Beta (1491 Elo) show competitive pressure but no breakthroughs, with traders eyeing summer model drops from major labs as key catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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