Anthropic leads market-implied odds for second-best large language model by end of June due to the strong benchmark performance of its Claude Opus 4.7 release in mid-April, which secured top or near-top scores on coding, agentic reasoning, and long-context tasks while trailing only OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series. Traders view this positioning as durable because Claude continues to lead or tie on SWE-bench Verified and writing-quality evaluations, creating a clear gap over Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and other contenders. Recent weeks have seen no comparable frontier updates from rivals, reinforcing the current hierarchy ahead of potential June releases or benchmark shifts that could still alter competitive standings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 78%
谷歌 14%
OpenAI 6.7%
xAI 2.6%
$400,677 交易量
$400,677 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
78%
谷歌
14%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
2%
微软
1%
阿里巴巴
1%
Meta
1%
Moonshot
<1%
百度
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
美团
<1%
Mistral
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
Anthropic 78%
谷歌 14%
OpenAI 6.7%
xAI 2.6%
$400,677 交易量
$400,677 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$14,660 交易量
78%
谷歌
$5,606 交易量
14%
OpenAI
$34,197 交易量
7%
xAI
$14,881 交易量
3%
DeepSeek
$249,043 交易量
2%
微软
$5,674 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$6,585 交易量
1%
Meta
$4,175 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$4,912 交易量
<1%
百度
$4,388 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$9,312 交易量
<1%
美团
$34,076 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$5,546 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$4,723 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$2,898 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads market-implied odds for second-best large language model by end of June due to the strong benchmark performance of its Claude Opus 4.7 release in mid-April, which secured top or near-top scores on coding, agentic reasoning, and long-context tasks while trailing only OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series. Traders view this positioning as durable because Claude continues to lead or tie on SWE-bench Verified and writing-quality evaluations, creating a clear gap over Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and other contenders. Recent weeks have seen no comparable frontier updates from rivals, reinforcing the current hierarchy ahead of potential June releases or benchmark shifts that could still alter competitive standings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$400,677结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads market-implied odds for second-best large language model by end of June due to the strong benchmark performance of its Claude Opus 4.7 release in mid-April, which secured top or near-top scores on coding, agentic reasoning, and long-context tasks while trailing only OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series. Traders view this positioning as durable because Claude continues to lead or tie on SWE-bench Verified and writing-quality evaluations, creating a clear gap over Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and other contenders. Recent weeks have seen no comparable frontier updates from rivals, reinforcing the current hierarchy ahead of potential June releases or benchmark shifts that could still alter competitive standings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$400,677结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic leads market-implied odds for second-best large language model by end of June due to the strong benchmark performance of its Claude Opus 4.7 release in mid-April, which secured top or near-top scores on coding, agentic reasoning, and long-context tasks while trailing only OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series. Traders view this positioning as durable because Claude continues to lead or tie on SWE-bench Verified and writing-quality evaluations, creating a clear gap over Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and other contenders. Recent weeks have seen no comparable frontier updates from rivals, reinforcing the current hierarchy ahead of potential June releases or benchmark shifts that could still alter competitive standings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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