Anthropic's Claude 4.6 large language model currently leads trader consensus due to its demonstrated strengths in complex reasoning, long-context coding, and nuanced writing, as reflected in recent independent benchmarks and real-world developer feedback. This positioning stems from consistent model updates that have widened its edge over competitors in enterprise and agentic use cases, where accuracy and reliability matter most. Google’s upcoming Gemini release at I/O could narrow the gap if it delivers major capability gains, while OpenAI’s recent GPT-5.5 variants have yet to shift sentiment significantly. Traders view the 92% implied probability as reflecting current verified performance rather than speculation, though a surprise benchmark breakthrough or regulatory shift could still introduce volatility before month-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 93%
谷歌 8%
OpenAI <1%
字节跳动 <1%
$8,682,521 交易量
$8,682,521 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
93%
谷歌
8%
OpenAI
1%
字节跳动
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
百度
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美团
<1%
微软
<1%
Anthropic 93%
谷歌 8%
OpenAI <1%
字节跳动 <1%
$8,682,521 交易量
$8,682,521 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
$626,798 交易量
93%
谷歌
$573,678 交易量
8%
OpenAI
$725,203 交易量
1%
字节跳动
$533,095 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$540,025 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$503,728 交易量
<1%
Meta
$512,531 交易量
<1%
xAI
$656,224 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$517,535 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$475,917 交易量
<1%
百度
$469,788 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$401,673 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,421,640 交易量
<1%
美团
$311,904 交易量
<1%
微软
$412,851 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 4.6 large language model currently leads trader consensus due to its demonstrated strengths in complex reasoning, long-context coding, and nuanced writing, as reflected in recent independent benchmarks and real-world developer feedback. This positioning stems from consistent model updates that have widened its edge over competitors in enterprise and agentic use cases, where accuracy and reliability matter most. Google’s upcoming Gemini release at I/O could narrow the gap if it delivers major capability gains, while OpenAI’s recent GPT-5.5 variants have yet to shift sentiment significantly. Traders view the 92% implied probability as reflecting current verified performance rather than speculation, though a surprise benchmark breakthrough or regulatory shift could still introduce volatility before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
交易量
$8,682,521结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 4.6 large language model currently leads trader consensus due to its demonstrated strengths in complex reasoning, long-context coding, and nuanced writing, as reflected in recent independent benchmarks and real-world developer feedback. This positioning stems from consistent model updates that have widened its edge over competitors in enterprise and agentic use cases, where accuracy and reliability matter most. Google’s upcoming Gemini release at I/O could narrow the gap if it delivers major capability gains, while OpenAI’s recent GPT-5.5 variants have yet to shift sentiment significantly. Traders view the 92% implied probability as reflecting current verified performance rather than speculation, though a surprise benchmark breakthrough or regulatory shift could still introduce volatility before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$8,682,521结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude 4.6 large language model currently leads trader consensus due to its demonstrated strengths in complex reasoning, long-context coding, and nuanced writing, as reflected in recent independent benchmarks and real-world developer feedback. This positioning stems from consistent model updates that have widened its edge over competitors in enterprise and agentic use cases, where accuracy and reliability matter most. Google’s upcoming Gemini release at I/O could narrow the gap if it delivers major capability gains, while OpenAI’s recent GPT-5.5 variants have yet to shift sentiment significantly. Traders view the 92% implied probability as reflecting current verified performance rather than speculation, though a surprise benchmark breakthrough or regulatory shift could still introduce volatility before month-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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