Recent releases of Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 and related Sonnet variants have strengthened its edge in coding benchmarks, agentic workflows, and long-context reasoning, driving trader consensus toward a 71% implied probability that the company holds the leading large language model by late June. Google follows with Gemini 3.1 updates emphasizing multimodal and efficiency gains, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 rollout has narrowed but not closed the gap in sustained performance metrics. With no major competing drops confirmed in the past week, the market reflects Anthropic's current technical positioning and developer adoption trends ahead of potential summer updates from rivals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 71.4%
谷歌 21%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 1.4%
$5,906,241 交易量
$5,906,241 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
71%
谷歌
21%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
<1%
微软
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美团
<1%
百度
<1%
Anthropic 71.4%
谷歌 21%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 1.4%
$5,906,241 交易量
$5,906,241 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$834,626 交易量
71%
谷歌
$526,670 交易量
21%
OpenAI
$336,383 交易量
7%
xAI
$1,061,448 交易量
1%
Meta
$131,358 交易量
1%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
$499,353 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$158,414 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$298,373 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
$477,931 交易量
<1%
微软
$151,604 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$155,118 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$377,063 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$359,625 交易量
<1%
美团
$377,561 交易量
<1%
百度
$160,729 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases of Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 and related Sonnet variants have strengthened its edge in coding benchmarks, agentic workflows, and long-context reasoning, driving trader consensus toward a 71% implied probability that the company holds the leading large language model by late June. Google follows with Gemini 3.1 updates emphasizing multimodal and efficiency gains, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 rollout has narrowed but not closed the gap in sustained performance metrics. With no major competing drops confirmed in the past week, the market reflects Anthropic's current technical positioning and developer adoption trends ahead of potential summer updates from rivals.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$5,906,241结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases of Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 and related Sonnet variants have strengthened its edge in coding benchmarks, agentic workflows, and long-context reasoning, driving trader consensus toward a 71% implied probability that the company holds the leading large language model by late June. Google follows with Gemini 3.1 updates emphasizing multimodal and efficiency gains, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 rollout has narrowed but not closed the gap in sustained performance metrics. With no major competing drops confirmed in the past week, the market reflects Anthropic's current technical positioning and developer adoption trends ahead of potential summer updates from rivals.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$5,906,241结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent releases of Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 and related Sonnet variants have strengthened its edge in coding benchmarks, agentic workflows, and long-context reasoning, driving trader consensus toward a 71% implied probability that the company holds the leading large language model by late June. Google follows with Gemini 3.1 updates emphasizing multimodal and efficiency gains, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 rollout has narrowed but not closed the gap in sustained performance metrics. With no major competing drops confirmed in the past week, the market reflects Anthropic's current technical positioning and developer adoption trends ahead of potential summer updates from rivals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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