Claude Opus 4.6-thinking holds a commanding 97.3% implied probability as the top AI model on Polymarket for the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard (style control off) on May 16, driven by its persistent #1 ranking with Elo scores near 1504, far ahead of rivals. Anthropic's February release of Claude Opus 4.6 introduced superior reasoning capabilities in this chain-of-thought variant, enabling dominance in crowd-sourced user battles that prioritize raw performance over stylistic adjustments. Despite the mid-April Opus 4.7 launch, no leaderboard shifts have occurred in the past week, with stable positioning against GPT-5.5-high and Gemini 3 previews. Realistic challenges include a last-minute OpenAI or Google model drop or sudden 4.7-thinking surge from intensified battles before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于claude-opus-4-6-thinking 97.2%
claude-opus-4-6 1.9%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking 1.1%
Other <1%
$25,962 交易量
$25,962 交易量
2026-05-16
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
97%
claude-opus-4-6
2%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
1%
Other
1%
claude-opus-4-7
<1%
gpt-5.5-high
<1%
gemini-3-pro
<1%
muse-spark
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 97.2%
claude-opus-4-6 1.9%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking 1.1%
Other <1%
$25,962 交易量
$25,962 交易量
2026-05-16
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$7,209 交易量
97%
claude-opus-4-6
$1,599 交易量
2%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$3,876 交易量
1%
Other
$2,011 交易量
1%
claude-opus-4-7
$4,823 交易量
<1%
gpt-5.5-high
$2,600 交易量
<1%
gemini-3-pro
$1,475 交易量
<1%
muse-spark
$1,218 交易量
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$1,152 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Claude Opus 4.6-thinking holds a commanding 97.3% implied probability as the top AI model on Polymarket for the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard (style control off) on May 16, driven by its persistent #1 ranking with Elo scores near 1504, far ahead of rivals. Anthropic's February release of Claude Opus 4.6 introduced superior reasoning capabilities in this chain-of-thought variant, enabling dominance in crowd-sourced user battles that prioritize raw performance over stylistic adjustments. Despite the mid-April Opus 4.7 launch, no leaderboard shifts have occurred in the past week, with stable positioning against GPT-5.5-high and Gemini 3 previews. Realistic challenges include a last-minute OpenAI or Google model drop or sudden 4.7-thinking surge from intensified battles before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
交易量
$25,962结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Claude Opus 4.6-thinking holds a commanding 97.3% implied probability as the top AI model on Polymarket for the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard (style control off) on May 16, driven by its persistent #1 ranking with Elo scores near 1504, far ahead of rivals. Anthropic's February release of Claude Opus 4.6 introduced superior reasoning capabilities in this chain-of-thought variant, enabling dominance in crowd-sourced user battles that prioritize raw performance over stylistic adjustments. Despite the mid-April Opus 4.7 launch, no leaderboard shifts have occurred in the past week, with stable positioning against GPT-5.5-high and Gemini 3 previews. Realistic challenges include a last-minute OpenAI or Google model drop or sudden 4.7-thinking surge from intensified battles before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$25,962结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Opus 4.6-thinking holds a commanding 97.3% implied probability as the top AI model on Polymarket for the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard (style control off) on May 16, driven by its persistent #1 ranking with Elo scores near 1504, far ahead of rivals. Anthropic's February release of Claude Opus 4.6 introduced superior reasoning capabilities in this chain-of-thought variant, enabling dominance in crowd-sourced user battles that prioritize raw performance over stylistic adjustments. Despite the mid-April Opus 4.7 launch, no leaderboard shifts have occurred in the past week, with stable positioning against GPT-5.5-high and Gemini 3 previews. Realistic challenges include a last-minute OpenAI or Google model drop or sudden 4.7-thinking surge from intensified battles before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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