Avengers: Doomsday commands a 72.5% implied probability in the market because its status as the next major Marvel Cinematic Universe crossover positions it for the kind of opening-weekend dominance historically seen with Avengers titles. Strong pre-release tracking, franchise momentum, and broad audience anticipation continue to anchor trader consensus around this outcome. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 17.5% on the strength of its lead character’s consistent box-office appeal, though it trails the larger-scale event film. Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu register in the low single digits, reflecting solid brand loyalty but narrower expectations for record-breaking debuts. Marketing pushes and any early box-office comps released over the next several months remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the 2026 release slate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于哪部电影在2026年的首映周末最大？
哪部电影在2026年的首映周末最大？
复仇者联盟：末日之战 73%
蜘蛛侠：全新一天 18%
玩具总动员5 3.1%
奥德赛 2.4%
$1,571,780 交易量
$1,571,780 交易量
2026-12-31
复仇者联盟：末日之战
73%
蜘蛛侠：全新一天
18%
玩具总动员5
3%
奥德赛
2%
沙丘：弥赛亚
2%
星球大战：曼达洛人和格罗古
1%
饥饿游戏：收割日的黎明
<1%
超级马里奥银河电影
<1%
复仇者联盟：末日之战 73%
蜘蛛侠：全新一天 18%
玩具总动员5 3.1%
奥德赛 2.4%
$1,571,780 交易量
$1,571,780 交易量
2026-12-31
复仇者联盟：末日之战
$118,995 交易量
73%
蜘蛛侠：全新一天
$43,480 交易量
18%
玩具总动员5
$181,713 交易量
3%
奥德赛
$146,997 交易量
2%
沙丘：弥赛亚
$85,190 交易量
2%
星球大战：曼达洛人和格罗古
$34,991 交易量
1%
饥饿游戏：收割日的黎明
$59,114 交易量
<1%
超级马里奥银河电影
$18,306 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday commands a 72.5% implied probability in the market because its status as the next major Marvel Cinematic Universe crossover positions it for the kind of opening-weekend dominance historically seen with Avengers titles. Strong pre-release tracking, franchise momentum, and broad audience anticipation continue to anchor trader consensus around this outcome. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 17.5% on the strength of its lead character’s consistent box-office appeal, though it trails the larger-scale event film. Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu register in the low single digits, reflecting solid brand loyalty but narrower expectations for record-breaking debuts. Marketing pushes and any early box-office comps released over the next several months remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the 2026 release slate.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,571,780结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday commands a 72.5% implied probability in the market because its status as the next major Marvel Cinematic Universe crossover positions it for the kind of opening-weekend dominance historically seen with Avengers titles. Strong pre-release tracking, franchise momentum, and broad audience anticipation continue to anchor trader consensus around this outcome. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 17.5% on the strength of its lead character’s consistent box-office appeal, though it trails the larger-scale event film. Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu register in the low single digits, reflecting solid brand loyalty but narrower expectations for record-breaking debuts. Marketing pushes and any early box-office comps released over the next several months remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the 2026 release slate.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$1,571,780结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Avengers: Doomsday commands a 72.5% implied probability in the market because its status as the next major Marvel Cinematic Universe crossover positions it for the kind of opening-weekend dominance historically seen with Avengers titles. Strong pre-release tracking, franchise momentum, and broad audience anticipation continue to anchor trader consensus around this outcome. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 17.5% on the strength of its lead character’s consistent box-office appeal, though it trails the larger-scale event film. Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu register in the low single digits, reflecting solid brand loyalty but narrower expectations for record-breaking debuts. Marketing pushes and any early box-office comps released over the next several months remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the 2026 release slate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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