Apple's established annual iPhone release cadence, reinforced by confirmed plans for a September 9, 2026 keynote unveiling iPhone 18 Pro models alongside a new foldable device, underpins the near-certain trader consensus. Supply chain reports and analyst commentary from sources like Ming-Chi Kuo highlight ongoing preparation despite memory shortages prompting a staggered strategy that delays only base models into 2027. This positions premium 2026 launches as the primary driver of market-implied odds. While technical hurdles or regulatory shifts could theoretically intervene, historical patterns and Apple's current event scheduling make outright delays or cancellations highly improbable before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
99% 概率
$175,294 交易量
$175,294 交易量
2026-12-31
是
99% 概率
$175,294 交易量
$175,294 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual iPhone release cadence, reinforced by confirmed plans for a September 9, 2026 keynote unveiling iPhone 18 Pro models alongside a new foldable device, underpins the near-certain trader consensus. Supply chain reports and analyst commentary from sources like Ming-Chi Kuo highlight ongoing preparation despite memory shortages prompting a staggered strategy that delays only base models into 2027. This positions premium 2026 launches as the primary driver of market-implied odds. While technical hurdles or regulatory shifts could theoretically intervene, historical patterns and Apple's current event scheduling make outright delays or cancellations highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$175,294结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual iPhone release cadence, reinforced by confirmed plans for a September 9, 2026 keynote unveiling iPhone 18 Pro models alongside a new foldable device, underpins the near-certain trader consensus. Supply chain reports and analyst commentary from sources like Ming-Chi Kuo highlight ongoing preparation despite memory shortages prompting a staggered strategy that delays only base models into 2027. This positions premium 2026 launches as the primary driver of market-implied odds. While technical hurdles or regulatory shifts could theoretically intervene, historical patterns and Apple's current event scheduling make outright delays or cancellations highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$175,294结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETApple's established annual iPhone release cadence, reinforced by confirmed plans for a September 9, 2026 keynote unveiling iPhone 18 Pro models alongside a new foldable device, underpins the near-certain trader consensus. Supply chain reports and analyst commentary from sources like Ming-Chi Kuo highlight ongoing preparation despite memory shortages prompting a staggered strategy that delays only base models into 2027. This positions premium 2026 launches as the primary driver of market-implied odds. While technical hurdles or regulatory shifts could theoretically intervene, historical patterns and Apple's current event scheduling make outright delays or cancellations highly improbable before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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