Apple’s longstanding pattern of annual September iPhone launches, reinforced by recent supply-chain reports and analyst consensus, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that at least some models in the iPhone 18 lineup will reach the market in 2026. Credible leaks indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model are slated for a fall event, preserving the core release cadence even as the base iPhone 18 and iPhone 18e shift to spring 2027 for strategic revenue reasons. Traders weigh this historical precedent and verified production timelines heavily, while acknowledging residual risks such as last-minute manufacturing delays or an unexpected naming adjustment that could push the entire series later.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$104,172 交易量
$104,172 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$104,172 交易量
$104,172 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s longstanding pattern of annual September iPhone launches, reinforced by recent supply-chain reports and analyst consensus, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that at least some models in the iPhone 18 lineup will reach the market in 2026. Credible leaks indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model are slated for a fall event, preserving the core release cadence even as the base iPhone 18 and iPhone 18e shift to spring 2027 for strategic revenue reasons. Traders weigh this historical precedent and verified production timelines heavily, while acknowledging residual risks such as last-minute manufacturing delays or an unexpected naming adjustment that could push the entire series later.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$104,172结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s longstanding pattern of annual September iPhone launches, reinforced by recent supply-chain reports and analyst consensus, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that at least some models in the iPhone 18 lineup will reach the market in 2026. Credible leaks indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model are slated for a fall event, preserving the core release cadence even as the base iPhone 18 and iPhone 18e shift to spring 2027 for strategic revenue reasons. Traders weigh this historical precedent and verified production timelines heavily, while acknowledging residual risks such as last-minute manufacturing delays or an unexpected naming adjustment that could push the entire series later.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$104,172结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s longstanding pattern of annual September iPhone launches, reinforced by recent supply-chain reports and analyst consensus, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that at least some models in the iPhone 18 lineup will reach the market in 2026. Credible leaks indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model are slated for a fall event, preserving the core release cadence even as the base iPhone 18 and iPhone 18e shift to spring 2027 for strategic revenue reasons. Traders weigh this historical precedent and verified production timelines heavily, while acknowledging residual risks such as last-minute manufacturing delays or an unexpected naming adjustment that could push the entire series later.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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