Tesla’s Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles—below analyst consensus and marking the weakest quarter in a year—have left traders clustered around the 375k–450k ranges for Q2 as they assess sequential recovery prospects. Production capacity across U.S., China, and Texas Gigafactories supports upside, while early signals from Giga Shanghai Model 3/Y sales and strong European registrations point to an export-driven lift. Persistent competition from legacy automakers, softening U.S. EV incentives, and brand headwinds continue to cap optimism, keeping the three leading outcome bands nearly tied. May registration data and the official July delivery report remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于40万–42.5万 27.0%
375,000–400,000 24%
42.5万–45万 22%
45万–47.5万 14.0%
$43,317 交易量
$43,317 交易量
2026-06-30
少于30万
3%
30万–32.5万
1%
32.5万–35万
4%
35万–37.5万
11%
375,000–400,000
24%
40万–42.5万
27%
42.5万–45万
22%
45万–47.5万
12%
475,000+
10%
40万–42.5万 27.0%
375,000–400,000 24%
42.5万–45万 22%
45万–47.5万 14.0%
$43,317 交易量
$43,317 交易量
2026-06-30
少于30万
$5,342 交易量
3%
30万–32.5万
$3,167 交易量
1%
32.5万–35万
$3,301 交易量
4%
35万–37.5万
$7,627 交易量
11%
375,000–400,000
$4,127 交易量
24%
40万–42.5万
$8,391 交易量
27%
42.5万–45万
$4,472 交易量
22%
45万–47.5万
$3,336 交易量
12%
475,000+
$3,553 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla’s Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles—below analyst consensus and marking the weakest quarter in a year—have left traders clustered around the 375k–450k ranges for Q2 as they assess sequential recovery prospects. Production capacity across U.S., China, and Texas Gigafactories supports upside, while early signals from Giga Shanghai Model 3/Y sales and strong European registrations point to an export-driven lift. Persistent competition from legacy automakers, softening U.S. EV incentives, and brand headwinds continue to cap optimism, keeping the three leading outcome bands nearly tied. May registration data and the official July delivery report remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
市场开放时间： Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
交易量
$43,317结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla’s Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles—below analyst consensus and marking the weakest quarter in a year—have left traders clustered around the 375k–450k ranges for Q2 as they assess sequential recovery prospects. Production capacity across U.S., China, and Texas Gigafactories supports upside, while early signals from Giga Shanghai Model 3/Y sales and strong European registrations point to an export-driven lift. Persistent competition from legacy automakers, softening U.S. EV incentives, and brand headwinds continue to cap optimism, keeping the three leading outcome bands nearly tied. May registration data and the official July delivery report remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
交易量
$43,317结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla’s Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles—below analyst consensus and marking the weakest quarter in a year—have left traders clustered around the 375k–450k ranges for Q2 as they assess sequential recovery prospects. Production capacity across U.S., China, and Texas Gigafactories supports upside, while early signals from Giga Shanghai Model 3/Y sales and strong European registrations point to an export-driven lift. Persistent competition from legacy automakers, softening U.S. EV incentives, and brand headwinds continue to cap optimism, keeping the three leading outcome bands nearly tied. May registration data and the official July delivery report remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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