Frequent elevated error incidents across Claude's latest large language models, including Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6, have driven trader sentiment toward higher downtime tallies, with nine affected days already recorded through May 15 amid ongoing partial outages in Claude API and Code. This pattern stems from infrastructure scaling pressures following recent model releases and surging user demand, eroding reliability against stabler competitors like OpenAI's GPT series. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered at 39% for 12+ days, 37% for 6-8, and 30% for 9-11, capturing uncertainty over whether Anthropic's compute expansions—rumored via xAI partnerships—stabilize services or if disruptions persist through month-end, testing developer ecosystem trust.