Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026, centered on strikes targeting Iranian capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear sites, have featured repeated cycles of military action, temporary ceasefires, and failed MOUs without a formal congressional declaration of war. Recent August developments include Iran's threats of renewed offensive operations if diplomacy stalls, US imposition of intensified economic measures and blockades rather than escalation to declared conflict, and mediation efforts through Oman over maritime routes. Trader consensus reflects the historical US pattern of conducting sustained operations short of formal war declarations, alongside high barriers including congressional requirements, alliance coordination, and preference for sanctions and targeted strikes. Key upcoming factors include any breakthrough or breakdown in Hormuz negotiations and nuclear talks by late 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$7,774,877 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
4%
$7,774,877 交易量
12月31日
$802,243 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026, centered on strikes targeting Iranian capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear sites, have featured repeated cycles of military action, temporary ceasefires, and failed MOUs without a formal congressional declaration of war. Recent August developments include Iran's threats of renewed offensive operations if diplomacy stalls, US imposition of intensified economic measures and blockades rather than escalation to declared conflict, and mediation efforts through Oman over maritime routes. Trader consensus reflects the historical US pattern of conducting sustained operations short of formal war declarations, alongside high barriers including congressional requirements, alliance coordination, and preference for sanctions and targeted strikes. Key upcoming factors include any breakthrough or breakdown in Hormuz negotiations and nuclear talks by late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
交易量
$7,774,877结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026, centered on strikes targeting Iranian capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear sites, have featured repeated cycles of military action, temporary ceasefires, and failed MOUs without a formal congressional declaration of war. Recent August developments include Iran's threats of renewed offensive operations if diplomacy stalls, US imposition of intensified economic measures and blockades rather than escalation to declared conflict, and mediation efforts through Oman over maritime routes. Trader consensus reflects the historical US pattern of conducting sustained operations short of formal war declarations, alongside high barriers including congressional requirements, alliance coordination, and preference for sanctions and targeted strikes. Key upcoming factors include any breakthrough or breakdown in Hormuz negotiations and nuclear talks by late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$7,774,877结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026, centered on strikes targeting Iranian capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear sites, have featured repeated cycles of military action, temporary ceasefires, and failed MOUs without a formal congressional declaration of war. Recent August developments include Iran's threats of renewed offensive operations if diplomacy stalls, US imposition of intensified economic measures and blockades rather than escalation to declared conflict, and mediation efforts through Oman over maritime routes. Trader consensus reflects the historical US pattern of conducting sustained operations short of formal war declarations, alongside high barriers including congressional requirements, alliance coordination, and preference for sanctions and targeted strikes. Key upcoming factors include any breakthrough or breakdown in Hormuz negotiations and nuclear talks by late 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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