Mary Peltola maintains a commanding position in the Alaska Senate first-round margin market because her first-choice vote share has held steady near 49% amid ongoing ballot counting, outpacing incumbent Dan Sullivan by roughly two points with 86% of expected votes tallied. Late absentee ballots from Republican-leaning areas narrowed an initial larger lead but left her ahead, consistent with pre-election polling averages showing her up one to three points in a toss-up rated race. Minor candidates collectively account for about 4% of first preferences, limiting any spoiler effect while ranked-choice tabulation awaits the November 25 certification deadline. Remaining ballots and final canvassing constitute the main variables that could still shift the precise spread.