**Traders see the 200-219 tweet bracket as the clear leader at 50.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent weekly output has frequently landed in or near that range amid a steady daily cadence of roughly 20–30 posts.** Historical Polymarket data shows wide swings—some weeks settling in the 40-64 or 180-199 brackets during quieter stretches, others climbing higher with SpaceX launches or viral commentary—but the current Sept 25–Oct 2 window is tracking toward the middle band based on consistent activity through late September. Momentum from ongoing X engagement, Grok updates, and Starship-related posts has kept totals from spiking or dropping sharply, aligning with the market’s aggregated real-money consensus. The period closes Oct 2, leaving limited room for major shifts unless a high-profile event triggers a surge.