Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs converge on a Madrid maximum near 31–32°C for June 15, producing the market’s near-even split between those outcomes. Subtle differences in Saharan air-mass advection, afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth, and surface wind speeds will decide whether the official Retiro station peaks at the lower or higher end of that narrow range. With no strong synoptic forcing or heat-wave setup in place, forecast uncertainty remains elevated; small revisions in the next model cycle or observational updates can readily shift probability between the two leading contracts while keeping tail risks below 2%. Historical mid-June averages near 29–30°C provide context, but current conditions sit slightly above climatology.