Current ensemble forecasts from Mexican meteorological agencies and global models point to a maximum temperature of 22–24°C in Mexico City on August 29, driven by persistent cloud cover, afternoon thunderstorms, and elevated moisture from the ongoing rainy season and tropical wave activity. These factors suppress peak solar heating at the city’s 2,240-meter altitude, where typical late-August highs reach 24–26°C under clearer skies. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 23°C and 24°C reflects genuine uncertainty in rainfall timing and intensity across model runs, with heavier or earlier precipitation favoring the lower end of the distribution and any brief clearing potentially allowing brief warming to 25°C. Updated guidance from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional remains the key near-term catalyst ahead of resolution.