Traders price the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on August 29 near 3–4 °C because recent model guidance and local observations show overnight radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds, with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional forecasting an 8 °C minimum that still leaves room for station-specific readings several degrees lower. Late-winter conditions at 34 °S typically feature dry, stable air masses that allow surface temperatures to drop below the seasonal 7–9 °C average when high pressure dominates and dew points remain low. Current hourly data indicate early-morning readings already near 9–10 °C, yet any modest increase in cloud cover or wind shift could limit further cooling and shift probabilities toward the 2 °C or below outcome. Upcoming official updates from the national meteorological service will refine the exact minimum before market resolution.