**Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and multiple models places Houston’s August 31 high in the mid-90s, centering on 94–95 °F as the most probable outcome.** Official guidance issued August 29 shows a sunny to mostly sunny day with highs near 94–95 °F and only a slight (20 %) chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms after peak heating. Southerly flow, high boundary-layer moisture, and continued strong subtropical ridging support temperatures typical of late-August climatology (historical average high ~94 °F). Model runs exhibit tight clustering around these values, with limited spread arising mainly from the timing and coverage of any diurnal convection that could briefly reduce insolation. Heat-index values are expected to reach 105 °F, but this does not alter the dry-bulb maximum used for market resolution. Because the forecast window is only 48 hours away and no significant synoptic changes are indicated, the market’s heaviest weighting on the 94–95 °F bin (37.5 %) reflects this narrow uncertainty band, while adjacent bins capture residual model or observational variance in exact peak timing.