Latest numerical weather models from European centers project peak daytime temperatures in Milan of 34–35°C on August 12 under mostly clear skies and light easterly flow, aligning with the tight market-implied probabilities of 44.5% for 35°C and 37.5% for 34°C. These values sit near seasonal norms for mid-August, with high solar insolation and an urban heat-island effect amplifying afternoon maxima. The narrow spread between the two leading outcomes reflects residual model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and the precise timing of peak heating. A partial solar eclipse visible that afternoon may produce a minor, short-lived cooling of 0.5–1°C, keeping 33°C and 36°C as plausible tails at roughly 9.5% each. Updated model runs and local observations tomorrow morning will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.