Short-term numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles show Qingdao under a warm, subsiding air mass on August 7, with limited cloud cover and light southerly flow supporting daily maximums near 36–37 °C. Coastal sea-breeze moderation and small differences in boundary-layer moisture or timing of any weak frontal passage create the narrow spread between these two leading outcomes, while 38 °C or higher would require stronger subsidence or reduced marine influence than most runs indicate. Historical August averages hover near 29 °C, so current model consensus reflects an anomalous warm spell. Updated 12–48-hour forecasts and observational data from Qingdao stations on August 6 will provide the clearest resolution signals ahead of the daily high.