Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with core PCE recently near 3.3%, combined with geopolitical energy shocks earlier in 2026, has anchored trader expectations for a cautious or even hawkish policy path, supporting 10-year Treasury yields near 4.69-4.70%. Large fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance add term premium pressure, while firm labor market data reduces near-term rate-cut odds relative to earlier 2026 pricing. Market-implied paths now reflect limited easing potential through year-end, with upcoming FOMC meetings, CPI and PCE releases, and growth indicators likely to drive yield volatility as participants reassess the balance between inflation risks and any softening in economic momentum.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$225,341 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3.9%
12%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
2%
3.0%
2%
2.0%
4%
1.0%
2%
$225,341 Vol.
3.9%
$44,197 Vol.
12%
3.8%
$41,312 Vol.
5%
3.7%
$27,383 Vol.
2%
3.6%
$5,587 Vol.
5%
3.5%
$33,052 Vol.
2%
3.0%
$917 Vol.
2%
2.0%
$564 Vol.
4%
1.0%
$40,570 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with core PCE recently near 3.3%, combined with geopolitical energy shocks earlier in 2026, has anchored trader expectations for a cautious or even hawkish policy path, supporting 10-year Treasury yields near 4.69-4.70%. Large fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance add term premium pressure, while firm labor market data reduces near-term rate-cut odds relative to earlier 2026 pricing. Market-implied paths now reflect limited easing potential through year-end, with upcoming FOMC meetings, CPI and PCE releases, and growth indicators likely to drive yield volatility as participants reassess the balance between inflation risks and any softening in economic momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
ভলিউম
$225,341শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with core PCE recently near 3.3%, combined with geopolitical energy shocks earlier in 2026, has anchored trader expectations for a cautious or even hawkish policy path, supporting 10-year Treasury yields near 4.69-4.70%. Large fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance add term premium pressure, while firm labor market data reduces near-term rate-cut odds relative to earlier 2026 pricing. Market-implied paths now reflect limited easing potential through year-end, with upcoming FOMC meetings, CPI and PCE releases, and growth indicators likely to drive yield volatility as participants reassess the balance between inflation risks and any softening in economic momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
ভলিউম
$225,341শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with core PCE recently near 3.3%, combined with geopolitical energy shocks earlier in 2026, has anchored trader expectations for a cautious or even hawkish policy path, supporting 10-year Treasury yields near 4.69-4.70%. Large fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance add term premium pressure, while firm labor market data reduces near-term rate-cut odds relative to earlier 2026 pricing. Market-implied paths now reflect limited easing potential through year-end, with upcoming FOMC meetings, CPI and PCE releases, and growth indicators likely to drive yield volatility as participants reassess the balance between inflation risks and any softening in economic momentum.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা