Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin/Taleghan 2, burying stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and halting detectable progress toward a testable device. IAEA assessments confirm no structured weaponization activities or radiological releases, while ongoing diplomatic talks and monitoring have reinforced constraints. Traders assign 95.5% probability to "No" based on this sustained disruption and Iran's limited capacity to reconstitute facilities rapidly. Scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected rebuilding at hardened sites like Pickaxe Mountain, a sudden policy reversal amid leadership changes, or further escalation prompting a crash program before the 2027 cutoff.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% সম্ভাবনা
$246,340 Vol.
$246,340 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% সম্ভাবনা
$246,340 Vol.
$246,340 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin/Taleghan 2, burying stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and halting detectable progress toward a testable device. IAEA assessments confirm no structured weaponization activities or radiological releases, while ongoing diplomatic talks and monitoring have reinforced constraints. Traders assign 95.5% probability to "No" based on this sustained disruption and Iran's limited capacity to reconstitute facilities rapidly. Scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected rebuilding at hardened sites like Pickaxe Mountain, a sudden policy reversal amid leadership changes, or further escalation prompting a crash program before the 2027 cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$246,340শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin/Taleghan 2, burying stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and halting detectable progress toward a testable device. IAEA assessments confirm no structured weaponization activities or radiological releases, while ongoing diplomatic talks and monitoring have reinforced constraints. Traders assign 95.5% probability to "No" based on this sustained disruption and Iran's limited capacity to reconstitute facilities rapidly. Scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected rebuilding at hardened sites like Pickaxe Mountain, a sudden policy reversal amid leadership changes, or further escalation prompting a crash program before the 2027 cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$246,340শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin/Taleghan 2, burying stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and halting detectable progress toward a testable device. IAEA assessments confirm no structured weaponization activities or radiological releases, while ongoing diplomatic talks and monitoring have reinforced constraints. Traders assign 95.5% probability to "No" based on this sustained disruption and Iran's limited capacity to reconstitute facilities rapidly. Scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected rebuilding at hardened sites like Pickaxe Mountain, a sudden policy reversal amid leadership changes, or further escalation prompting a crash program before the 2027 cutoff.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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