Recent NWS and model guidance point to a persistent marine layer with onshore southwest flow and morning low clouds or fog as the dominant control on overnight radiative cooling for Los Angeles on September 4. This setup, reinforced by near-shore sea-surface temperatures that remain above average, supports minimum readings centered in the mid-60s °F—closely aligned with the climatological average low of 64.5 °F and recent observations at LAX. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 64–67 °F versus warmer outliers reflects trader weighting of these stable coastal influences against the small but non-zero chance of reduced marine-layer depth or brief offshore flow that could allow slightly higher minima. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion remain the key near-term catalysts.