National Weather Service forecasts for New York City indicate overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 70s through August 7 amid a persistent warm, humid airmass with limited radiative cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes clustering around 78–81°F, reflecting model consensus on minimal temperature drops despite typical August climatology favoring lows near 67–71°F. Recent monthly outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center have reinforced above-average temperatures across the Northeast, sustaining trader confidence in elevated minimums while noting potential for minor forecast shifts from updated model runs or unexpected clear-sky cooling.