Moonshot AI's recent Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model optimized for agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and multi-agent orchestration—has driven trader consensus toward it as the leading contender for second place among AI agent labs. Strong benchmark results in coding-agent and tool-use evaluations, alongside features like Agent Swarm modes and desktop sub-agent platforms, highlight its momentum in specialized agent capabilities relative to U.S. labs. OpenAI's enterprise Presence platform and coding tools, alongside Anthropic's and Google's agent frameworks, keep the race tight, but slower recent agent-specific updates contribute to their lower implied odds. With probabilities clustered near 50% for several options, markets reflect ongoing uncertainty around benchmark leadership and product timelines through September.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMoonshot 50.3%
OpenAI 36%
Anthropic 7%
Z.ai 4.4%
$21,390 Vol.
$21,390 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
50%
OpenAI
36%
Anthropic
7%
Z.ai
4%
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
Xiaomi
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Mistral
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot 50.3%
OpenAI 36%
Anthropic 7%
Z.ai 4.4%
$21,390 Vol.
$21,390 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
$2,483 Vol.
50%
OpenAI
$10,299 Vol.
36%
Anthropic
$2,032 Vol.
7%
Z.ai
$349 Vol.
4%
$384 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$379 Vol.
1%
Meta
$309 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,552 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$219 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$370 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$611 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$555 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$339 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$289 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$364 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$282 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$289 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$289 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI's recent Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model optimized for agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and multi-agent orchestration—has driven trader consensus toward it as the leading contender for second place among AI agent labs. Strong benchmark results in coding-agent and tool-use evaluations, alongside features like Agent Swarm modes and desktop sub-agent platforms, highlight its momentum in specialized agent capabilities relative to U.S. labs. OpenAI's enterprise Presence platform and coding tools, alongside Anthropic's and Google's agent frameworks, keep the race tight, but slower recent agent-specific updates contribute to their lower implied odds. With probabilities clustered near 50% for several options, markets reflect ongoing uncertainty around benchmark leadership and product timelines through September.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
ভলিউম
$21,390শেষ তারিখ
Sep 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI's recent Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model optimized for agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and multi-agent orchestration—has driven trader consensus toward it as the leading contender for second place among AI agent labs. Strong benchmark results in coding-agent and tool-use evaluations, alongside features like Agent Swarm modes and desktop sub-agent platforms, highlight its momentum in specialized agent capabilities relative to U.S. labs. OpenAI's enterprise Presence platform and coding tools, alongside Anthropic's and Google's agent frameworks, keep the race tight, but slower recent agent-specific updates contribute to their lower implied odds. With probabilities clustered near 50% for several options, markets reflect ongoing uncertainty around benchmark leadership and product timelines through September.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ভলিউম
$21,390শেষ তারিখ
Sep 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI's recent Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model optimized for agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and multi-agent orchestration—has driven trader consensus toward it as the leading contender for second place among AI agent labs. Strong benchmark results in coding-agent and tool-use evaluations, alongside features like Agent Swarm modes and desktop sub-agent platforms, highlight its momentum in specialized agent capabilities relative to U.S. labs. OpenAI's enterprise Presence platform and coding tools, alongside Anthropic's and Google's agent frameworks, keep the race tight, but slower recent agent-specific updates contribute to their lower implied odds. With probabilities clustered near 50% for several options, markets reflect ongoing uncertainty around benchmark leadership and product timelines through September.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা