UK GDP growth has remained positive through mid-2026 despite energy price pressures from Middle East developments, with Q1 expansion at 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and the three months to June posting 0.4% growth. Consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and Bank of England project full-year expansion of 0.8–1.1%, supported by resilient consumption, stable 4.9% unemployment, and moderating core inflation near 2.6%. These factors underpin the 89% market-implied probability of no recession, as traders price in avoidance of two consecutive quarters of contraction. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming ONS GDP releases and Bank of England communications on the energy shock's impact.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড9% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Mar 30, 2027
9% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Mar 30, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK release for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Office for National Statistics, specifically its "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" and "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK" releases for the relevant quarters.UK GDP growth has remained positive through mid-2026 despite energy price pressures from Middle East developments, with Q1 expansion at 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and the three months to June posting 0.4% growth. Consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and Bank of England project full-year expansion of 0.8–1.1%, supported by resilient consumption, stable 4.9% unemployment, and moderating core inflation near 2.6%. These factors underpin the 89% market-implied probability of no recession, as traders price in avoidance of two consecutive quarters of contraction. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming ONS GDP releases and Bank of England communications on the energy shock's impact.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK release for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Office for National Statistics, specifically its "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" and "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK" releases for the relevant quarters.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK release for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Office for National Statistics, specifically its "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" and "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK" releases for the relevant quarters.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
ভলিউম
$8,520শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK release for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Office for National Statistics, specifically its "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" and "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK" releases for the relevant quarters.UK GDP growth has remained positive through mid-2026 despite energy price pressures from Middle East developments, with Q1 expansion at 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and the three months to June posting 0.4% growth. Consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and Bank of England project full-year expansion of 0.8–1.1%, supported by resilient consumption, stable 4.9% unemployment, and moderating core inflation near 2.6%. These factors underpin the 89% market-implied probability of no recession, as traders price in avoidance of two consecutive quarters of contraction. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming ONS GDP releases and Bank of England communications on the energy shock's impact.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK release for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Office for National Statistics, specifically its "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" and "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK" releases for the relevant quarters.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK release for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Office for National Statistics, specifically its "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" and "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK" releases for the relevant quarters.
ভলিউম
$8,520শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...UK GDP growth has remained positive through mid-2026 despite energy price pressures from Middle East developments, with Q1 expansion at 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and the three months to June posting 0.4% growth. Consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and Bank of England project full-year expansion of 0.8–1.1%, supported by resilient consumption, stable 4.9% unemployment, and moderating core inflation near 2.6%. These factors underpin the 89% market-implied probability of no recession, as traders price in avoidance of two consecutive quarters of contraction. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming ONS GDP releases and Bank of England communications on the energy shock's impact.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা