Ongoing U.S.-brokered talks scheduled for November 10-11 in Abu Dhabi represent the primary near-term catalyst, following shuttle diplomacy by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and signals of willingness from both Kyiv and Moscow. President Zelenskyy has previously floated holding a nationwide referendum on a peace agreement—potentially alongside elections—while polls from KIIS and others show roughly 50-55% Ukrainian support for putting any deal to a public vote, though majorities reject major territorial concessions such as ceding full control of Donbas or the current front lines. Constitutional experts highlight legal barriers, noting that territorial changes typically require parliamentary ratification or amendments rather than a simple referendum, especially under martial law. Recent polling indicates stable public resolve to continue resistance despite winter hardships, with limited openness to compromises only if paired with security guarantees and EU integration paths. Any breakthrough in Abu Dhabi could accelerate or sideline referendum timelines.