Ukraine’s firm rejection of territorial concessions remains the dominant factor behind the 96% trader consensus that Kyiv will not agree to cede the remainder of Donbas before 2027. Recent US-mediated contacts, including September 2026 visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv, highlighted Russia’s insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from still-held portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as a precondition for talks, while Ukrainian officials continue to condition any diplomacy on a ceasefire along current lines and security guarantees. Battlefield developments reinforce this stance: Russian forces have missed repeated deadlines for full Donbas control, and Ukrainian operations have produced incremental gains in northern Donetsk. With both sides’ positions entrenched and no scheduled events through late 2026 expected to alter core demands, only major military shifts, new security commitments, or leadership changes could realistically reopen the possibility of agreement within the timeframe.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
4% সম্ভাবনা
$150,433 Vol.
$150,433 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% সম্ভাবনা
$150,433 Vol.
$150,433 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine’s firm rejection of territorial concessions remains the dominant factor behind the 96% trader consensus that Kyiv will not agree to cede the remainder of Donbas before 2027. Recent US-mediated contacts, including September 2026 visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv, highlighted Russia’s insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from still-held portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as a precondition for talks, while Ukrainian officials continue to condition any diplomacy on a ceasefire along current lines and security guarantees. Battlefield developments reinforce this stance: Russian forces have missed repeated deadlines for full Donbas control, and Ukrainian operations have produced incremental gains in northern Donetsk. With both sides’ positions entrenched and no scheduled events through late 2026 expected to alter core demands, only major military shifts, new security commitments, or leadership changes could realistically reopen the possibility of agreement within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ET
ভলিউম
$150,433শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine’s firm rejection of territorial concessions remains the dominant factor behind the 96% trader consensus that Kyiv will not agree to cede the remainder of Donbas before 2027. Recent US-mediated contacts, including September 2026 visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv, highlighted Russia’s insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from still-held portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as a precondition for talks, while Ukrainian officials continue to condition any diplomacy on a ceasefire along current lines and security guarantees. Battlefield developments reinforce this stance: Russian forces have missed repeated deadlines for full Donbas control, and Ukrainian operations have produced incremental gains in northern Donetsk. With both sides’ positions entrenched and no scheduled events through late 2026 expected to alter core demands, only major military shifts, new security commitments, or leadership changes could realistically reopen the possibility of agreement within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
ভলিউম
$150,433শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s firm rejection of territorial concessions remains the dominant factor behind the 96% trader consensus that Kyiv will not agree to cede the remainder of Donbas before 2027. Recent US-mediated contacts, including September 2026 visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv, highlighted Russia’s insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from still-held portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as a precondition for talks, while Ukrainian officials continue to condition any diplomacy on a ceasefire along current lines and security guarantees. Battlefield developments reinforce this stance: Russian forces have missed repeated deadlines for full Donbas control, and Ukrainian operations have produced incremental gains in northern Donetsk. With both sides’ positions entrenched and no scheduled events through late 2026 expected to alter core demands, only major military shifts, new security commitments, or leadership changes could realistically reopen the possibility of agreement within the timeframe.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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