Ongoing deadlock in Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, marked by the Kremlin's July 2026 assessment of no immediate prospects for resumed talks, underpins the 98.9% implied probability against a peace agreement by August 31. Positions remain entrenched, with Russia conditioning any settlement on territorial concessions including full control of Donbas and Ukraine prioritizing security guarantees alongside an unconditional ceasefire. Recent prisoner exchanges and brief holiday pauses have not narrowed core gaps, while mutual strikes continue amid stalled trilateral efforts involving the United States. Traders' near-certain consensus aligns with this pattern of impasse. Late diplomatic interventions or battlefield shifts could theoretically compress timelines, though structural barriers make such developments improbable within the narrow window.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$228,775 Vol.
$228,775 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
$228,775 Vol.
$228,775 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing deadlock in Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, marked by the Kremlin's July 2026 assessment of no immediate prospects for resumed talks, underpins the 98.9% implied probability against a peace agreement by August 31. Positions remain entrenched, with Russia conditioning any settlement on territorial concessions including full control of Donbas and Ukraine prioritizing security guarantees alongside an unconditional ceasefire. Recent prisoner exchanges and brief holiday pauses have not narrowed core gaps, while mutual strikes continue amid stalled trilateral efforts involving the United States. Traders' near-certain consensus aligns with this pattern of impasse. Late diplomatic interventions or battlefield shifts could theoretically compress timelines, though structural barriers make such developments improbable within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
ভলিউম
$228,775শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing deadlock in Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, marked by the Kremlin's July 2026 assessment of no immediate prospects for resumed talks, underpins the 98.9% implied probability against a peace agreement by August 31. Positions remain entrenched, with Russia conditioning any settlement on territorial concessions including full control of Donbas and Ukraine prioritizing security guarantees alongside an unconditional ceasefire. Recent prisoner exchanges and brief holiday pauses have not narrowed core gaps, while mutual strikes continue amid stalled trilateral efforts involving the United States. Traders' near-certain consensus aligns with this pattern of impasse. Late diplomatic interventions or battlefield shifts could theoretically compress timelines, though structural barriers make such developments improbable within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$228,775শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing deadlock in Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, marked by the Kremlin's July 2026 assessment of no immediate prospects for resumed talks, underpins the 98.9% implied probability against a peace agreement by August 31. Positions remain entrenched, with Russia conditioning any settlement on territorial concessions including full control of Donbas and Ukraine prioritizing security guarantees alongside an unconditional ceasefire. Recent prisoner exchanges and brief holiday pauses have not narrowed core gaps, while mutual strikes continue amid stalled trilateral efforts involving the United States. Traders' near-certain consensus aligns with this pattern of impasse. Late diplomatic interventions or battlefield shifts could theoretically compress timelines, though structural barriers make such developments improbable within the narrow window.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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