Xi Jinping’s consolidated authority across the Chinese Communist Party, Central Military Commission, and state institutions underpins the 95.5% trader consensus that he will not be removed before the end of 2026. Recent personnel decisions, ongoing military and party purges, and policy continuity demonstrate tight elite control with no visible factional challenges or public signals of instability through mid-2026. Leadership transitions have historically aligned with party congresses rather than abrupt exits, and the absence of a designated successor reinforces expectations of continuity ahead of the 2027 National Congress. While the wisdom of crowds reflected in these odds accounts for opaque elite politics, low-probability shifts could still arise from a sudden health event, severe economic crisis prompting realignment, or major external shock before December 31, 2026.