The short remaining window until December 31, 2026, combined with repeated assessments that the People’s Liberation Army lacks adequate amphibious lift, air-sea superiority, and logistics sustainment for a complex cross-strait landing, underpins traders’ 97.9% pricing of “No.” Recent Taiwan defense reports and U.S. intelligence updates highlight ongoing PLA modernization delays tied to senior-officer purges, while Beijing continues gray-zone pressure through coast-guard patrols, maritime militia activity, and reduced but persistent aircraft incursions rather than staging for direct assault. Historical patterns show amphibious invasions require extensive visible preparation that has not materialized. Late-breaking escalations from live-fire exercises or a major incident remain the primary, though low-probability, paths that could still shift the outcome before year-end.