US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate that Chinese leaders lack both plans and a fixed timeline for military action against Taiwan, citing prohibitive costs and logistical barriers that continue to shape trader consensus around a low probability of clash before 2027. Recent high-level diplomacy, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, produced trade progress while highlighting Taiwan as a core sensitivity, with Beijing issuing standard warnings against mishandling without triggering escalation. Taiwan's passage of a 780 billion NTD special defense budget on May 8 further bolsters deterrence through additional missile and air-defense acquisitions. Ongoing gray-zone pressures, such as April ADIZ incursions and coast-guard patrols, remain below thresholds for open conflict, consistent with patterns of coercion rather than invasion preparation. These factors sustain the market's view that major military developments are unlikely in the near term.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডহ্যাঁ
$1,783,026 Vol.
$1,783,026 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
হ্যাঁ
$1,783,026 Vol.
$1,783,026 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate that Chinese leaders lack both plans and a fixed timeline for military action against Taiwan, citing prohibitive costs and logistical barriers that continue to shape trader consensus around a low probability of clash before 2027. Recent high-level diplomacy, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, produced trade progress while highlighting Taiwan as a core sensitivity, with Beijing issuing standard warnings against mishandling without triggering escalation. Taiwan's passage of a 780 billion NTD special defense budget on May 8 further bolsters deterrence through additional missile and air-defense acquisitions. Ongoing gray-zone pressures, such as April ADIZ incursions and coast-guard patrols, remain below thresholds for open conflict, consistent with patterns of coercion rather than invasion preparation. These factors sustain the market's view that major military developments are unlikely in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,783,026শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate that Chinese leaders lack both plans and a fixed timeline for military action against Taiwan, citing prohibitive costs and logistical barriers that continue to shape trader consensus around a low probability of clash before 2027. Recent high-level diplomacy, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, produced trade progress while highlighting Taiwan as a core sensitivity, with Beijing issuing standard warnings against mishandling without triggering escalation. Taiwan's passage of a 780 billion NTD special defense budget on May 8 further bolsters deterrence through additional missile and air-defense acquisitions. Ongoing gray-zone pressures, such as April ADIZ incursions and coast-guard patrols, remain below thresholds for open conflict, consistent with patterns of coercion rather than invasion preparation. These factors sustain the market's view that major military developments are unlikely in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$1,783,026শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate that Chinese leaders lack both plans and a fixed timeline for military action against Taiwan, citing prohibitive costs and logistical barriers that continue to shape trader consensus around a low probability of clash before 2027. Recent high-level diplomacy, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, produced trade progress while highlighting Taiwan as a core sensitivity, with Beijing issuing standard warnings against mishandling without triggering escalation. Taiwan's passage of a 780 billion NTD special defense budget on May 8 further bolsters deterrence through additional missile and air-defense acquisitions. Ongoing gray-zone pressures, such as April ADIZ incursions and coast-guard patrols, remain below thresholds for open conflict, consistent with patterns of coercion rather than invasion preparation. These factors sustain the market's view that major military developments are unlikely in the near term.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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