Traders assign a 91.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for such an operation. Recent months feature continued gray-zone pressure through air and maritime patrols alongside Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises and civil-defense drills in August 2026, yet without observable large-scale amphibious mobilization or logistics buildup. Chinese leadership changes, domestic economic pressures ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, and recognition of substantial military and sanctions risks further anchor expectations of continued coercion short of war. Scheduled events such as Taiwan’s elections and routine PLA training sustain the low implied probability of crossing into open conflict.